Wednesday, October 5, 2011

Palin Possibilities

Sarah Palin and US Flag

John R. Houk
© October 5, 2012

Time is running out for Sarah Palin to announce a GOP bid for President. Filing deadlines are around the corner for the important first primaries and Caucuses. I have heard many commentators express a disbelief that at this point Governor Palin can put together a national campaign to organize a bid for President if she should decided to enter at the last minute.

Frankly I am a huge supporter of Sarah Palin. I believe she is just the right mixture of Social Conservatism, Less Government-Less Taxes and National Security kind of gal to enter and be a successful President. Is she an expert on all the elements I have listed? Assuredly the answer is no.

Here is something to think about. Way back in 1980 I was not a supporter of Ronald Reagan. The 1980 Presidential election was only the second election was eligible to vote for. My first eligible election was the first and only time I voted for a Democrat – Jimmy Carter.

I grew up in family that voted Democratic Party no-matter-what because of the perceived memory that Democrat Franklin Delano Roosevelt save poor people from hunger and demoralization from a near decade long Great Depression. Thus at the age of 20 in the 1976 election for Carter mingle with a little disgust for Republican Richard Nixon and Republican Gerald Ford over Watergate. From my 20 year old perspective Nixon abused the law to spy on Democrats when he did not need to. He was going to beat Democrat George McGovern hands down. McGovern was so far Left that there was distaste for radical politics as much as Americans were dissatisfied with the perception of the far Right of Republican Barry Goldwater in previous elections.

In my way of thinking Nixon was just as culpable as his underlings for the Watergate Break-in because there was every appearance he not only had firsthand knowledge of the spy project but may have actually directed it. As far as I was concerned President Gerald Ford’s blanket pardon of all things Richard Nixon confirmed the criminal involvement of a sitting President.

The coming of a Democrat with a winning smile, a Christian background (Southern Baptist) and from a region noted at the time for Conservative Democrats was a time perceived as a new beginning. The year 1976 was the Bi-Centennial year of America’s existence and there was a great wave no adherence to a political spectrum and everyone was proud to be an American. I am thinking this was the last time a President had a time to draw American voters to a lasting political center. Instead Carter screwed everything up domestically and internationally causing a “malaise” among Americans seeming knocked down for the second time waiting for the TKO third knock down.

Enter oft vilified Ronald Reagan was perceived by Leftists and Centrists as a nuke button pushing Conservative cowboy that many believed was on the same page as Barry Goldwater. I voted Libertarian in protest. President Reagan went on to deliver a knockout punch to the Union of Soviet Socialists Republics (USSR) without firing a shot at the Communist Empire.

Sarah Palin is in the same state of vilification by a Left Wing Press. Reagan was portrayed as an aged dummy yet turned out to be a brilliant President with the good management skills of knowing how to delegate duties to people who knew how to execute their jobs rather screw them up. Palin quite probably is the female version of Ronald Reagan. Ironically President Barack Hussein Obama came into his Office with the electorate expecting another American salvation that was expected from President Carter. Obama is a screw-up like Carter.

Sarah Palin fits the Reagan bill to be a successful President.

As I wrote earlier, Sarah Palin’s opportunity to join the GOP race for President is running out of time for 2012. Here is the thing that alarms about Sarah Palin. I just finished reading some speculation from Ed Morrissey found on Hot Air that Palin’s reluctance in entering the GOP process for the Party nomination may be due to her willingness to either enter the Presidential race-2012 as an Independent or Third Party Candidate. My reaction to reading this article is that would be a disaster insuring the reelection President Barack Hussein Obama for another 4 dastardly years as POTUS.

I’m not completely sure, but it seems the last time a Third Party was successful against the then two prevailing Political Parties of the time was the emergence of the Republican Party in 1856 which captured the Presidency in 1860 – Abraham Lincoln.

By 1860s the Whig Party had been rendered insignificant by the political and social issues of the day; viz. States Rights and Slavery. I don’t think the political climate today is quite the same as the Whigs and Democrats. In these polarized days of politics both the Dems and the GOP have a strong following. The Dems are dominated by Leftists almost devoid of the Conservative Democrats as represented by deceased Senator Henry “Scoop” Jackson. The GOP is almost unwittingly in a struggle between Tea Party Republicans and Establishment (Center-Right) Republicans.

The Tea Party Republicans might represent the Radical Republicans that emerged as Presidential contenders by 1860. Establishment Republicans, although mostly of a Conservative slant, represents the politics as usual that does not want to rock the boat with new ideas of Budget responsibility and New Tax responsibility. The Tea Party Republicans want to throw out politics as usual to do something different because the old politics is broken. The thing about Tea Partiers is the blend that unites them all is budget and taxes; however there are some splinter causes that Tea Partiers do not all agree on. There is the stalwart budget and taxes group, Libertarian group and the Social Conservative group. The thing that binds them all is Budget and Taxes.

Sarah Palin has been looked upon as the loudest voice of the Tea Party Movement; however as Morrissey pointed out Palin is not THE Tea Party Leader. In other words the Tea Party Movement is not the Palin Movement.

It is not time to for Sarah Palin to run as an Independent nor is it time for her to be on a Third Party Ticket. If Palin runs in 2012 she must run as a Republican or a second term for Obama will be assured.

JRH 10/5/11
Could Palin run as an independent?

OCTOBER 5, 2011 9:25 AM

I wrote today’s column for The Week after Chris Christie bowed out —again — of the Republican presidential nomination sweepstakes, calling it almost the end of “the season of fantasy politics.”  Several states have hard deadlines for primary ballots this month, among them key states such as New Hampshire, Florida, and Michigan.  With only a couple of weeks left, Republicans will have to accept that the field they have now contains the choices they will have in the primary:

Can anyone else get into the race at this point? It seems very unlikely. The only potential candidate with enough name recognition and any semblance of a national organization would be Sarah Palin, and she has spoken recently of a campaign being too “shackling” for real activism. Palin hasn’t ruled it out, but the longer she waits, the less time she has to build a campaign organization that can deliver a state like Iowa, New Hampshire, or South Carolina.

At the moment, it looks as though Republicans will have to go with the field they have. That means the race to the top of the ticket will likely be fought between Romney, Perry, and the improbable longshot Herman Cain. Michele Bachmann has faded into the statistical-noise level of the polling, only besting other also-rans like Rick Santorum and Jon Huntsman by a couple of percentage points. Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul have stronger followings, but neither have given much indication of stretching their attraction beyond their loyal fans. Even absent Palin or Christie, none of these candidates have gained traction despite months on the campaign trail.

Cain caught lightning in a bottle this past week, and he will gain the most from having the window close on new entries. As Perry gets hammered on immigration, Tea Party support seems to have shifted in Cain’s direction, and he now leads or ties Perry in state and national polls. However, Cain’s fundraising hasn’t been strong; he finished Q2 with less than a half-million dollars in the bank, and his recent boost has only covered less than the last two weeks. Moreover, Cain will go on a book tour that will take him out of the key primary states for at least a couple of weeks, which won’t help his fundraising in Q4.  It may not be as curious a strategic decision as Gingrich’s two-week international cruise in May, but it will distract voters from Cain just as he’s building some needed momentum. …

That said, Romney has another big problem. According to the Boston Globe, Romney — who has never had a problem raising money — saw his donations drop off in the third quarter, perhaps down to $11 million — a drop-off of one-third since Q2. It’s an unusual sign of weakness, but it might reflect a pause from some previous donors who went shopping for a Christie candidacy over the last couple of months. Romney doesn’t have a passionate following in the Republican Party, so he has to appear invulnerable to keep his frontrunner status.

Of course, we’ve already seen Perry’s fundraising numbers, which make an even stronger case for shutting out new entrants.  If Perry can lasso this much in donations in just 49 days, that’s money that won’t be available to other candidates.

That applies to Palin, too … assuming she wants to run as a Republican. The Hill raises a question as to whether Palin might go rogue:

There’s been some chatter this week about the possibility that former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R) might run for president next year — as an independent.

The consequences for both her and the presidential race couldn’t be more profound, and there are a number of reasons why this could be a very real possibility. …

Palin has held the GOP establishment in contempt since 2008. During the 2010 elections, she regularly railed against the “GOP machine” and “good old boys,” and both she and her supporters have accused the party of trying to muzzle Palin. In fact, Palin’s embrace of the Tea Party movement has regularly been coupled with attacks on the Republican Party, and she’s often keen to note that her spirit and principles are conservative, not Republican.

In short, Palin doesn’t claim loyalty to the GOP, and in fact loathes the party establishment. There’d be no greater blow she could strike to the GOP elite than to run as an independent and siphon off votes from the Republican nominee. Party bigwigs would either fawn over her, trying to coax her out of the race, or attack her mercilessly as they try to discredit her among conservative-minded voters. Either way, Palin would once again be the center of attention.

That would solve one pressing issue: the deadlines.  Those only apply to primary candidates, not to general-election candidates, which would mean that Palin could go several more months without giving an answer as to her intentions.  That would leave her free to attack both Barack Obama and the Republican candidates from the outside while maintaining her position on Fox News, and presumably all of her other income-producing ventures.

However, it’s difficult to run as an independent, unless one has a vast personal fortune to leverage.  Ross Perot had that and didn’t win a single state in an election marked by the same kind of anti-establishment fervor we see now.  An independent has to get herself on 50 state ballots, which takes a lot of organization in terms of collecting signatures, filing paperwork, and the like, and all of that takes money — lots of it.  Ralph Nader had a significant amount of money and organizational help, and all he did was impact one state race just enough to make George W. Bush the next President.

Palin has the Tea Party grassroots, which is a considerable political force indeed.  But the Tea Party didn’t come into existence to back Palin; its main purpose was to defeat Barack Obama, Nancy Pelosi, and Harry Reid, and their disastrous policies.  Palin is an important leader in that movement, but it’s not a Palin movement.  If Palin launches an independent bid, the most likely outcome would be either having no impact at all, or to hand the election to Obama by splitting the vote on the Right.

How many Tea Party activists will want that outcome, or would be willing to risk it just to make a point about being anti-establishment?  Some might, and the degree to which those activists might be tempted to do so would depend on the outcome of the Republican primary, too.  However, when the dust settles next summer, Republicans and conservatives who want to see ObamaCare and Dodd-Frank repealed will know that the only path to that end will be to defeat Obama.  If Palin interferes with that, the damage to her standing will be significantly higher than she will suffer by not running at all. She needs to either get into the GOP primary or dedicate herself to activism over the next four years.

Update: It is worth noting, as commenter Steebo77 does, that Palin has often rejected calls for a third-party presidential run.
Palin Possibilities
John R. Houk
© October 5, 2012
Could Palin run as an independent?

© 2006-2011 Hot Air

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