Sunday, October 30, 2011

Tom Smith Comment on Kryzhanovsky– ‘The Professional’ Chapter 2

Kryzhanovsky in Presidential Conspiracies

Tom Smith provides Chapter Two to Kryzhanovsky’s book “The Professional”.

Chapter one was a how-to get elected and reelected. Chapter two is kind of a civics lesson in Machiavellianism for the President to operate the government.

I again I have to reassert that I believe Mikhail Kryzhanovsky’s personal resume as a former American-Soviet double agent/assassin is a little too fantastic to believe. Whether you believe this stuff is true or not, there are the makings of an awesome spy novel in the making.

Also a spell check was run on this post; however I did not change too much. Most of the changes were words that ran together and words that missing a letter or having one too many.

JRH 10/30/11
Chapter 2. The White House Management.

Presidential Calendar

Be strong. Be attractive. Be logical.

Time is your #1 value — learn how to run it properly through your White House staff. Divide your life in the White House into two 4-year-long terms and then divide your term into cycles. All you have to do during your first term is to take care of the second one - that’s your agenda. The second term’s agenda is to set your place in the world’s history.

First year

You have enough public support to start big initiatives. Presidents have a “honeymoon,” some period after the inauguration, up to 3 months, when the opposition party refrains from attacks and Congress is inclined to support you too.

This is a nice time for unrealistic public expectations, so set a national agenda right away and declare strong initiative on tax and budget issues.

Attention: once the first 100 days are gone (productive opening period), the media hounds will start baying. Once 180 days are past — Congress starts biting! President Kennedy said once: “I made two mistakes during my first year. One was Cuba. The other one was letting it be known that I read as much as I do.”

Second year

Develop your initiatives. It’s a time when inevitable public disappointment comes after high expectations. Your proposals inevitably antagonize certain interest groups and your popularity declines, because some groups develop into consistent winners and others - into consistent losers. You have to help your party with mid-term elections when the entire House and one-third of the Senate is up for re-election - it’s the best indicator of the nation’s approval or disapproval of your presidency. (But if you are not popular at the time, don’t show up in public often and don’t “help” certain candidates. George W. Bush ignored this rule and Republicans lost the House of Representatives in 2006).

If you fail to do what you plan in the first two years, better get it done fast!

Third year

Go, go public preparing your re-election. Presidents often lose voters during this period.

Fourth year. All-politics year.

Try to achieve some important international agreement (a treaty) for the historic record. Win re-election. Divide each year into 2 cycles: 1st cycle — late autumn and early winter prepare State of the Union Address to Congress, new legislation and budget recommendations. 2nd cycle — in late winter and spring promote these proposals and prepare for annual “Big Eight” summit.

Then, thirteen appropriations bills must be passed each year to keep the federal government operating:

1. Agriculture, rural development and related agencies.

2. Commerce, Justice and the judiciary, State and related agencies.

3. Defense.

4. District of Columbia.

5. Energy and water development.

6. Foreign assistance and related programs.

7. Interior and related agencies.

8. Labor, Health and Human Services, and Education.

9. Legislative branch for Congress’s own operations.

10. Military construction.

11. Transportation and related agencies.

12. Treasury, Postal Service and general government agencies.

13. Veterans Affairs, Housing and Urban Development, and independent agencies In the nine months leading up to the October 1 start of the federal government fiscal year, you and Congress must meet several deadlines to ensure that the money needed to operate the government will be available when the fiscal year begins:

- the first Monday in February, you have to submit budget requests.

- April 15 is the target date for the House and Senate to agree on a budget resolution setting guidelines for spending and taxes.

- on May 15, House Appropriations Committee and subcommittees begin acting on spending bills

- during the summer and early fall, House-State conferences resolve differences between their versions of the appropriations bills

- October 1 is the drop-dead date for you to sign appropriations bills into law

There are also several important activities that somehow were left out of the Constitution’s description of the President’s functions. As Head of State you represent the American people on ceremonial occasions. You have to:

- light the national Christmas tree - preside over the Easter egg roll on the White House lawn

- hold receptions to honor Americans who have won international prizes, such as the Nobel Prize - greet astronauts returning after their missions

- give out the Presidential Medal of Freedom - give recognition to charities like American Cancer society

- attend funerals of foreign Heads of State (you can send Vice President, Secretary of State or one of the former US Presidents in some cases)

- honor the war dead by laying wreaths at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier on Memorial Day and Veterans Day

- issue proclamations each year celebrating national holidays such as Thanksgiving Day and Independence Day

You can use ceremonial occasions to campaign for your reelection, make policy proposals, create an atmosphere of confidence and promote patriotism and national pride. Presidents who neglect ceremonial duties may find they have more time to develop policy and actually run the government, but they are sacrificing a tool of leadership that can be used not only to inspire the nation to greater accomplishments, but also to improve their own popularity.

You can also manipulate your political calendar for electoral advantage. It’s OK if your popularity declines after the first year in the Office. Most important is year number 3, which starts the reelection campaign. Divide your week into days.

Monday and Tuesday — decide plans and priorities for the week (with senior White House staff, Secretaries and Congress leaders). Limit those who can see you every morning to the top three — Chief of Staff, National Security Adviser and your scheduler.

Wednesday, Thursday, Friday — guide execution and make decisions. Don’t forget about your weekly radio address.

Divide your day into hours and minutes. General rule is 30% of your weekly hours go to senior White House staff, 10% — to Cabinet, 5% — to Congress members, 5% — to foreign leaders. No matter what, even if it’s a war time, sleep one hour during the day to give your brain a break, and finish your day at 6 P.M. After 6 P.M. do not read any documents, do not take any phone calls, do not talk to anybody but family members and close friends. Most presidents are manipulated by their aides, overwork themselves and fail to reach the age to which they were expected to live at the time of their election.

And - eat whatever you want, but you must know that the more calories you have to digest, the slower you think. Have a strategy for the last day of your presidency — maybe you’d like to pardon some convicted criminals, either to soften your image, make some more useful friends - or to make life more difficult for your rivals.

"Golden" rules

1. You are a national image (a national ideal based on pseudo-facts). You are supposed to be a symbol of national unity, national continuity and the symbol of federal government. You have to be a religious person and affirm religious values and set a moral example. Leadership is the first quality Americans look for in you - they want a President who is steadfast in his convictions. You are done with elections, but you are not done with your image.

2. The power to control the federal budget is your top prerogative.

3. Whom are you going to be? Make a choice: - utopist (ideas manipulator) - manager (Government and Congress manipulator) - challenger (reformer)

4. Any problem turns into a political one if it threatens your power.

5. Use your legal right to press the nation and illegal ones to press the world to eliminate problems.

4. [6] Once you’re in politics, you are a hostage of your status and you must sacrifice privacy in return for power.

6. [7] Never play alone - you are power as part of a group.

7. [8] All your decisions are risk taking ones (any decision brings a problem). You may ask advice before you make a decision, but don’t listen to anybody afterwards. You are not paid for the quantity of your work but for leadership and ultimate decision making. (If your adviser approaches you with a fresh idea, ask him why isn’t everyone else using it).

8. [9] Correct political mistakes before they became political scandals, but avoid any rush - think three times and check ten times before you sign anything (emergency is a loss of control).

9. [10] No easy matter will come to you as President - if they are easy they should be settled at lower levels. Don’t trust those who work too much and who push you too often (people who try to influence you go to your advisers, because they know you listen to the people close to you).

10. [11] Never blame previous Presidents for the problems they left for you - that’s a sign of weakness.

11. [12] Get rid of a White House tradition to deal with problems only if they “knock at the door.”

Your priorities are:

1. Economic policy: government taxing and spending, regulation and promotion of business, monetary supply, agriculture support.

2. Social policy: income security, housing, health care, education

3. Civil rights and liberties policy: discrimination prevention; voting rights and basic liberties

4. Natural resources & environmental policy: clear air and water, wildlife protection, national parks, public lands, water resources

5. Foreign & national security: new weapons systems, troop levels, military alliances, intelligence activities, foreign aid, foreign trade, treaties, relations with foreign governments, immigration

The Media

There are two power centers in the United States — TV and Washington, DC. Just as the press needs the White House to carry out its functions as the collector and interpreter of news and information, so the White House needs the press to spread its message. Your popularity depends on the amount of good and bad news about your administration’s policy dispensed by the media. No straight answers! If you rule the media, you rule America.

Press Conference

A press conference is the US President’s conference to proffer news items to the press, and not the press’s conference with the President. Behave like a king and they will take you for a king. Don’t let reporters provoke you into making any promise or statement unprepared; talk about the “bad” issues before they ask you to; never say “I don’t know” but say: “The problem is under study” instead. “Cool off” reporters by re-asking the question in terms that allow you to answer it more easily. Evade a question by pleading inability to reply on grounds of national security. Change the tone and direction of the questioning by calling on a reporter with a reputation for asking “soft” questions. (Better yet, to show off your achievements answer a question that wasn’t asked). Use press conferences to influence public opinion and to understand public opinion judging by the questions. Don’t schedule any press conferences during an international crisis — as a rule, they inflame the situation. But you really need press conferences when your polls go down.

Your Press Secretary has to be exceptionally articulate, smart and loyal, because he is your image and echo. He is in charge of the news management and that includes:

a) daily briefings to announce the President’s initiatives and positions, appointments or pending legislation. In such a way the White House, not the media, sets the news agenda for the day (the “story of the day”). Reporters have to buy it because they need pictures. Your Press Secretary may also provide special “backgrounder” briefings for reporters to explain certain initiatives (these briefings may go “on the record,” meaning that the remarks may be quoted and the source identified, “on background,” in which the source can’t be identified, “on deep background” when attribution of any sort is prohibited, and “off record,” in which information given to reporters may not be included in their stories and is mainly provided for their guidance. Briefing sources may range from the President personally to Cabinet members, the White House staff and policy experts.

b) stonewalling - “No comment.”

c) any bad news should be released on late Friday nights when media organizations are minimally staffed and news is likely to draw less public attention over the weekend.

d) staged events:

- exclusive interviews to selective reporters from major news organizations, those who are known to be sympathetic toward the administration

- private interviews to Washington-based foreign correspondents from countries that are scheduled to be visited. In such a way you set the stage for your visit and define your objectives and expectations on your own terms.

e) private contacts with media (the best way to build media support).

f) keeping a “black list” of reporters who don’t report favorably on the President and his policy. Because of the Press Secretary’s closeness to members of the news media, he is able to pick up public opinion trends and issues. The Office of Communications, that monitors the print and electronic media for stories of interest to the White House, has to bring you a one-page report every day.

You can get as much attention as you want. You are the most public figure in the world and everything you are doing and talking about inside and outside the White House has to be recorded. Every time you leave the White House you have to choose the right place or event, or accept the right invitation and deliver the message which is most important now. You rule the situation if you rule the flow of information, and if you can’t control events use your power to control the flow of information and give the first interpretation of events.

You are the White House boss but not the Washington, DC chief — you need the back up of public opinion for the next four years at least; but you must centralize policy making in the White House no matter what!

Hiring and firing

The appointment power is an extremely important tool enabling you to gain control of your administration and direct national policy. Numbers first: 1,125 Presidential appointees require Senate confirmation, including 185 Ambassadors, 94 District Attorneys, 94 US Marshals. (The Senate, though, may use its confirmation power as a political bargaining trick and “put on hold” your nominee until you agree to do them a favor — actually, they keep him a political hostage).

Office of Presidential

Personnel makes decisions or recommends President’s actions on 5842 jobs. Ten forms must be executed by the candidate, including a White House personal data statement, a waiver permitting the review of past tax returns, FBI questionnaire, a financial disclosure statement for the Office of Government Ethics so that identify possible conflicts of interests.

"Golden" rules

Avoid criminals, drug addicts, alcoholics, homosexuals. All come with a risk of future embarrassments. Avoid widespread mistake of hiring staff and the Cabinet judging by communication abilities and not by professional skills; remember — efficiency is low if staff consists of old or young people only. Do not hire your wife, please; or anyone else who cannot be fired. Look through previous administrations’ lists, talk to chairs of Congress committees, college professors (law, economics, national security), big business (friends, partners, donors).

Pressure from your congressional supporters will influence most of your appointments. Do not hire independent persons, no matter how experienced they are. Follow the quotas (one black Secretary and one Latino) Interview key positions candidates in person (Chief of Staff and his Deputies, all Assistants, Secretaries and Deputy Secretaries, federal agencies chiefs, US Ambassadors) and use the following criteria:

- commitment to your philosophy and program - integrity and personal qualifications - experience and skills

- no personal agenda - toughness needed to fight the Washington establishment (Congress + media + interest groups)

Give key positions to your campaign donors and team members who showed to you personal loyalty. No key positions go to another political party members. It’s advisable that you give a Secretary of Defense position to somebody who is expert in weapons systems and defense budgeting. Find jobs for some defeated Congress members. Please. Don’t hesitate to hire a personal assistant on any problem. Talk straight and demand loyalty. It’s good to take newly appointed Cabinet members and senior White House staff to Camp David for some informal meeting, drinks and the first open discussion on your future policy.

The White House Staff Starting with President Franklin Roosevelt, the trend has been for Presidents to act through the Executive Office of the President or the National Security Council rather than through the Cabinet. This has created a situation n which the White House Chief of Staff, the Director of the Office of Management and Budget and the National Security Advisor are more powerful than some Cabinet members. The Executive Office of the President is headed by the White House Chief of Staff and consists of the immediate staff of the President, as well as multiple levels of support staff reporting to the President, total of 1,800 full-time equivalent employees.

Senior staff within the Office have the title “Assistant to the President”, second-level staff have the title “Deputy Assistant to the President” and third-level staff have the title “Special Assistant to the President”. 2.6.1 The White House staff serves to:

- protect your political interests - act as principal political advisers

- distill information and provide a perspective from which the President can make an informed decision - direct the implementation of your priorities by the bureaucracy

 - process important political and economic information and process ideas coming from Congress, events and crisis situations, executive branch agencies, public opinion, party, interest groups, media and most important — from President and staff (ideas always have to be politically attractive)

- operate effectively inside the White House triangle: the President’s schedule — the flow of papers — the press. The most powerful figures in the White House are senior staff because they provide information for your decisions, evaluate policy proposals by Cabinet Secretaries, control activities of the executive branch, maintain liaison and lobby the Congress, interest groups, party leaders and media and control access (and information) to you — that’s what the Chief of Staff is doing (remember — there is no person # 2).

Chief of Staff

The Chief of Staff reviews most of the documents that go to you, gives his advice after intense information processing and consultations with other agencies and then - he’s telling others what President wants. A lot of people, including Congressmen and Senators, will try to reach you through him. He has to give good instructions to the Press Secretary on the White House message about current headlines and the President’s plans and actions (the Press Secretary works the same way with VP and First Lady press teams). He is responsible for your time and has to plan at least two months ahead your effective activity together with Communications, Scheduling and other policy offices’ Directors plus VP and First Lady Chiefs of Staff.

Besides, he has to do “dirty jobs” for the President like firing people or act as a “lighting rod” to draw criticism away from the President.

National Security Adviser

The National Security Adviser controls all the documents concerning national security coming from Defense, State Departments and national security agencies, and coordinates these offices. His position is not subject to Senate confirmation, which, according to a long-standing Washington tradition, means that he can’t be compelled to testify before the Congress.

He decides what papers the President should see and, what’s more, he gives his comments on any document. (National security is 100% the President’s business, so keep this figure at some distance and don’t let him think of himself as your Number Two - foreign leaders will try to work through him to get to you or to influence you.)

He has to oversee the functioning of the National Security Council (NSC), which is your foreign policy making tool and a “government inside government.” This is something very special and convenient about the NSC - it’s responsible only to you and there’s not much Congress control over its budget. Of course, the National Security Adviser is involved in every meeting between you and any foreign leader and is responsible for the schedule.

The most powerful of executive offices after the National Security Council is the Office of Management and Budget (it’s authorized to make cuts in federal agencies’ budgets, to advise you on national fiscal and economic policies, supervise execution of the government budget, evaluate the performance of federal programs). Who they are Staffers (and Secretaries) prefer stability and don’t like it if you’re “rocking the boat” - that’s why they often play reform-stoppers. They don’t like to work hard and prefer to send you on “very important visits” abroad as often as possible. They try to load you up with an extremely busy schedule and “feed” you hundreds of useless documents, create artificial problems and conflicts to show off their hyper-activity. They try to be your decision makers and they do influence you because, unlike Secretaries, they have daily contact with you; that’s why you don’t see Cabinet members as your principal aides. They try to set you up by interpreting your decisions and orders in their own way, as every Adviser is the “American President himself.” They know you won’t accept “complicated,” “expensive,” “risky” projects and they try to sell you “simple,” “cheap” and “popular” ones only.

Watch your senior staff and how they present ideas. If somebody wants to push his idea or a project, he will give you three options, making two of them unattractive. Naturally you pick the one he presented as least harmful.

"Golden" rules of the White House Staff:

1. Fight for access (influence) to President or to people with direct access (aiming to get a better position if President is re-elected).

2. Isolate government from the President.

3. Influence = relationship with the President.

4. Get a table in the West Wing. You are nobody if you are stuck in the White House basement and see the President by appointment only.

5. Before you send a document to the President, have to look at it and ask yourself if it’s too immoral or too radical.

6. Never say “no” aloud to anybody.

7. Remain anonymous with conflicts.

8. Never bring bad news to the President - let it be some idiot, not you.

9. Never say “That’s impossible,” no matter what the President is asking you to do.

10. Disappear (and find an excuse later) if the President is in a bad mood.

11. Never ague with the President if there’s somebody else present.

12. Learn how the President likes to do business (talking, giving orders, writing the documents and taking notes, managing official and non-official meetings) and his habits (food, drinks, cigarettes, favorite sport, movies, show business stars, writers, politicians; attitude to women) and try to copy him — the President has to feel comfortable with you.

13. Fight anybody who’s trying to do your job to be closer to the President.

14. Avoid taking on risky tasks controlled by the President in person (if necessary, try to “delegate” it to somebody else).

15. Avoid being associated with any failures.

16. Don’t say anything President doesn’t want to hear.

17. Use “Smith’s Principle”: if it can be understood by Congress, it’s not finished yet.

18. Write memorandums not to inform the reader, but to protect the writer.

19. No matter what subject is under discussion, employ the language of sports and war: say “breakthrough” instead of “progress” , never speak of compromise, consider “adopting a fallback position.”

20. Every public appearance in with the President is an investment in your career after the White House.

21. Minimize the number of rivals.

22. Gain independence according to how much the President needs you.

23. Before asking the President for some personal favor, make him believe he’s going to get some (political) profit out of it.

24. Tell the President what he can do and help him try to do it, and never tell him what he shouldn’t do.

25. Avoid giving any personal gifts to the President if you are not Chief of Staff.

Every public appearance in with the President is an investment in your career after the White House. There is an open power struggle between national security staff members and domestic policy staff and between those who develop new policies and initiatives versus budget staff.

How to Manage the Staff Adopt a dominant management style:

1. Pyramidal, structured as hierarchy with you at the top, followed by the Chief of Staff and other key assistants — I strongly recommend this one — it insures a clear chain of command and provides precise channels of information going up and directives going down. It permits specialization at the lower levels and control at the top. Besides, those higher up in the system are able to provide you with more accurate information in a timely manner, while filtering out and eliminating unnecessary information. (The problem is — nobody wants to bring you important bad news).

2. Circular, when you are surrounded by advisers, all of whom have approximately equal access to the Oval Office. That usually means too much access and chaos, and overloading you with information — 99% of which should not appear on your table (per JFK).

All your assistants are political assistants and everyone will try to play a policy-maker. But a good thing is that all of them were not elected and are responsible to you only. Thus you can:

- reform your staff freely as there’s not even a word about it in the US Constitution

- interchange key figures if domestic crisis is approaching

- if you don’t agree with the staff on important issues, go to polls for back-up. (The best employee is the one you can blackmail. Besides, a very good “pusher” for your people is their deep understanding that they have to work together to help the President stay in office next term — if the President leaves, everybody leaves)

- use “the carrot and the stick”

- use “pulling by pushing” — give an important job without publicity to those who become too popular - do as little reading as you can — you have staff for that

- do as little writing as you can — same reason - involve yourself personally in your staff and Cabinet jobs as little as you can — same reason

- make no minor decisions — same reason - send back any intelligence or other report if it’s more than one sheet of paper

The Cabinet

If the bureaucrats are wearing you down, you have the right to fire any Secretary. However, Cabinet members must be approved by Senate, therefore, you have to negotiate with the Senate leaders and party leaders throughout the country. As a result, some positions may go to people you don’t know well and can’t trust. Then if you want to re-organize the Cabinet you have to confront the Congress, because Congress tries to protect the interests of its constituents, who are often the clients of the existing bureaucratic agencies. So, if you plan changes you have to appoint people who share your strategy.

You may also need to offer a position to a group that you need to support in the coming election, or whose help you need; or to help pass legislation (these people will be more loyal to their political benefactors than to you). Secretaries have disadvantages compared to the staffers as they don’t have easy access to the Oval Office (again, that depends on you). Some of them had little or no contact with you before being appointed. Actually, their task is to win the backing of key interest groups and that’s why you, practically speaking, don’t need Cabinet meetings (if there’s no crisis). If a Cabinet member feels independent (usually, that’s the Secretary of State), don’t fire him - substitute him by the national security adviser or send him abroad on a regular basis.

Six positions have Cabinet-level rank, which allows these individuals to attend Cabinet meetings: Vice President, White House Chief of Staff, Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, Director of the Office of Management and Budget, Director of the National Drug Control Policy, United States Trade Representative

The Cabinet members work hard during a crisis only. They prefer to save their plans and suggestions for private conversations with you, because that is what you need them for and they are competing with other Secretaries for your time, support and for funds.

It’s not easy for the President to make government agencies work effectively — first, you have no time, second - they have no competition. Anyway, you must have insiders in all departments, especially in the Justice Department (FBI), CIA and Secret Service firing anybody who’s trying to dig dirt on you.

The Cabinet’s Hidden Structure

The Cabinet is divided into the inner circle (State, Defense, Treasury, Justice) and outer, less important one (Interior, Agriculture, Commerce, Labor, Health and Human Services, Housing, Transportation, Energy, Education, Veterans Affairs, Homeland Security).

While inner Cabinet members are selected more on the basis of personal friendship and loyalty, outer Cabinet members are selected more on the basis of geographical, ethnic or political representation and adopt an advocacy position for their Departments. The inner Cabinet is divided into two groups:

а) national security group (State and Defense Departments).

b) legal-economic group (Justice and Treasury Departments).

The Attorney General usually serves as the president’s attorney and this special responsibility leads to close personal contact with the President.

The Secretary of Treasury is very important in domestic monetary and fiscal policies and international trade and currency.

The outer Cabinet is a “domestic” group. Don’t waste your time meeting them - you have enough staffers for that. Sometimes “outer” Secretaries try to build their political base of support within their own bureaucracies. Don’t hesitate to fire and replace any of them if they start to criticize you and behave politically independent, counting on bureaucratic and interest groups’ support.

There’s one (negative for you) thing in common between all Secretaries - self-interest pushes them to protect and expand their departments and then they act more like representatives of their departments to the President then the presidential envoys they were appointed to be (“divided loyalty”).

Then Secretaries of State and Defense usually form a coalition against your National Security Adviser. You must be a smart mediator as Commander-in-Chief.

These two have weekly meetings, and each of them has a weekly meeting with the DNI (Director of National Intelligence), so you must know from independent sources what they are talking about in case they “forget” to tell you the details.

The Defense Secretary meets weekly with the Joint Chiefs, too.

Secretary of Defense

The Secretary of Defense is a very special and unique position for many reasons. This department is regarded a non-political one, defending the United States no matter what (never let him decide, though, what and where US interests are).

Military leaders have a lot of friends in Congress who press the administration to accept military demands. Besides, it’s not easy to manage the Pentagon, as you depend on the military for evaluations of the national military capacities; they decide also what kinds of weapons to buy and build. Half of the federal budget goes to Pentagon, making it a major department and that’s the most frustrating aspect of your management. You have to find compromise between you, Congress, public opinion, interest groups and defense contractors’ lobbyists.

The defense budget affects diplomacy and international relations, because governments worldwide scrutinize it for clues about US global intentions. For example, increases in defense spending, particularly for items such as naval vessels and aircraft, may signal a White House intention to pursue more aggressive foreign policies, and cuts in defense spending may indicate an effort to scale back on defense commitments.

Strategic Planning

That’s the biggest problem for all administrations. Strategic planning is the process of making present decisions based on very well-calculated future consequences. The basic strategic objective is a decision as to where to concentrate the government efforts — this is the essence of strategic planning. The worst example of strategic planning is the war in Iraq. It is crucial to choose a professional crew and place people in positions where their brains will work effectively and produce quality.

Planning formula:

- design strategy

- amplify and clarify strategy into policy

- organize a team

- guide execution

- make final strategic decision

A. Regular Planning Model: subject, concept, idea definition of objectives design of innovative options and debate exploration of concepts, claims and possibilities development of program outlines establishment of expected performance criteria and indications information gathering integration of ideological elements assignment of executive responsibility scheduling analysis and experiment evaluation, examination of likely consequences comparison of expected and actual performance levels determination of costs prognosis strategic decision

B. Express planning: information interpretation, projects design, choice of a project, decision

C. Regular (math) model: Negotiations planning (example): pressure, compromise, tricks, break.

Let’s evaluate "pressure": negative international reaction /-1/, breakdown /-1/, positive effect /+1/.

Score: -2+1=-1 Conclusion: no pressure should be used.

D. Expertise model. Government crisis (example): poor planning- wrong decisions- wrong actions- wrong execution- opposition activation- mass protests- coup

E. Scale model. Risk factors: Risk levels:

International sanctions medium high

High inflation rise medium

to High unemployment medium

to high Low public support level(low polls) medium

Presidential decision making rules:

1. Decision making is a multiple choice process.

2. Any decision involves political risk.

3. If you can’t make a decision, you need more information.

4. Be optimistic, but remain realistic.

5. Give yourself a deadline.

6. No brainstorming chaos.

7. There are two kinds of decisions: irreversible and reversible. Better know which kind you are facing.

Here’s the process:

a) Identify the problem

b) Analyze the problem — what are the facts?

c) Evaluate options — what are the pros and cons? what can go wrong?

d) Identify choices — which alternative is the best?

e) Implement plans — what action needs to be taken?

Bonus Psychological Modeling of a President (Strategic Intelligence Method)

Intelligence services worldwide watch political leaders during public appearances, trying to calculate their physical and mental health judging by their look and behavior. In the US they also evaluate the executives and staffers who surround the President at official meetings to calculate what’s going on in the White House. They look at:

- a very detailed biography

- personal needs, interests, philosophy

- political views

- intelligence, will-power, character, abilities

- behavior in crisis situations

- compromising facts and possible methods of influence

- personal, political and big business VIP connections

- financial situation - administration and team

- political opposition and President

- Congress

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