U.S. Senate Races 2012: Is a Republican Super Majority Possible?

Gary H. Johnson, Jr. writes of a potential huge win for Republicans in the U.S. Senate in 2012.

JRH 8/13/11

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U.S. Senate Races 2012: Is a Republican Super Majority Possible?

Posted by: Gary H. Johnson

Notes from The Bunker

August 11, 2011

Tea Party Tribune

The 2012 election news cycle will be dominated by Presidential politics. Far less attention will be paid to the U.S. Senate races; but, the Senate is poised for a massive sea change in 2012. In all probability, the slender Democrat majority will fall in 2012. But how large will the shift be? Is a Republican sweep in the offing? Is a Republican super majority possible in the U.S. Senate?

With 21 Democrat-controlled and two Independent seats on the ballot in 2012, a 13-seat swing is not out of the realm of possibility.

To achieve a three-fifths Republican super majority in the U.S. Senate, 10 Republican seats must be maintained amid internal jockeying. A minimum of 13 Democrat-controlled seats must also fall to the conservative constitutional Republicans if a 60 seat majority is to be attained. For every Republican seat lost, a Democrat seat must be conquered.

The Republican establishment in D.C. is gearing up to take on the Democrat field. Tea Party activism is framing the Republican primaries and changing the dynamics of the Senate races. With at least five Democrats retiring and the Independent Joseph Lieberman opting not to run, Tea Party candidates are positioning to snatch the Senate majority.

Fully half of the Republican U.S. Senate seats up for grabs in 2012 are considered vulnerable. A close analysis; however, indicates a plus or minus one (+1/-1) gain/loss probability in the 10 “at risk” Republican-controlled Senate Seats. The Tea Party candidate, Ted Cruz, may assume the Texas Senate seat of Hutchinson. All other Tea Party challengers will require effective fund raising in their primary challenges to gain a foothold in the upper house of Congress. The Massachusetts seat of Senator Brown is, at present, the most vulnerable Republican-controlled seat in 2012.

What is certain is that moving D.C.’s political goalposts to the right begins with holding the line.

The Republican Senate Seats

It is probable that Tea Party movement voters will urge Senator Richard Lugar of Indiana and Senator Olympia Snowe of Maine to step aside by fielding alternative candidates and mounting healthy primary run-offs that paint the sitting Republican Senators as RINOs (Republicans in name only) that pander to Democrat interests and regularly vote against conservative measures.

A Tea Party movement to retire Utah Senator Orrin Hatch has been launched by FreedomWorks PAC.

The Indiana State Treasurer Richard Mourdock announced his decision to challenge Senator Lugar in the May 8, 2012 primary. Claiming that his Senate bid is backed by three-quarters of the Republican county chairmen, Mourdock is primed to rise as a Tea Party favored candidate in Indiana.

In Maine, Tea Party organizer Andrew Ian Dodge is actively campaigning to challenge Senator Snowe.

It is rumored that Tea Party Republican Jason Chaffetz, the third district Utah Representative, is leaning towards challenging Senator Hatch; but, with less than a quarter million dollars in campaign financing raised to date, Congressman Chaffetz would effectively be ditching a winning re-election bid for a long shot.

Tennessee Senator Bob Corker has been targeted by conservative Red State blogger Erick Erickson for meandering across the aisle, though Tennessee Tea Party activists have largely exonerated their local conservative candidate.

Senator Scott Brown of Massachusetts may meet resistance in a primary run-off due his record of voting with Democrats. Though largely supported by Tea Party activists in his special election following the death of Senator Ted Kennedy, Senator Brown has rejected the Tea Party label, stating that he is “a Republican from Massachusetts.” This singular statement may stunt both Senator Brown’s re-election bid and the Presidential aspirations of Romney, a died in the wool Massachusetts Republican.

Nevada Senator Dean Heller has declined to join the Tea Party Caucus in Washington, D.C. However, his vote against the recent debt ceiling increase is likely to assure him a large level of Tea Party support in 2012.

Two Republican-controlled Senate seats will be vacant in the coming election cycle.

Arizona Senator Jon Kyl and Texas Senator Hutchinson are both retiring.

Arizona Republican Rep. Jeff Flake, to the ire of many Tea Party organizers, has already raised over $2 million for a run at Senator Kyl’s vacant seat. It should be noted that former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin recently purchased a home in Scottsdale. Though Palin has not yet registered as a potential candidate in the Arizona Senate race, her move may indicate that a primary showdown between the establishment Republican Flake and a Tea Party favorite is in the cards for 2012.

Kentucky Senator Rand Paul recently endorsed the Texas Tea Party hope, Ted Cruz, in the crowded primary in which at least two establishment politicians, former Texas Lt. Governor Dewhurst and former Dallas Mayor Leppert, are vying for the GOP nomination to replace Hutchinson.

Wyoming Senator Barrasso‘s re-election bid will probably be the least contested by the Tea Party movement. His conservative push against Obama Care has made the “orthopedic surgeon” one of the most powerful Republican weapons in Washington. Republican Senator Wicker will also face little Tea Party opposition in Mississippi though a number of conservative bloggers have targeted his questionable decisions on the Hill.

On the whole, the Republican establishment’s Senate seats in Wyoming, Tennessee and Mississippi appear impregnable to Tea Party challengers.

The likelihood of tea partiers swaying the elections in Indiana, Maine and Utah, seems at this point, distant; but then, the likelihood of Democrat challengers mounting campaigns that could overthrow the sitting Republican Senators in those states is also slim. Senator Lugar (IN) has over $3.5 million in electioneering cash on hand. Senator Snowe (ME) has over $2.7 million in election cash. Senator Hatch (UT) has over $3.4 million in cash on hand.

Despite Senator Lugar’s massive campaign fund, a recent Basswood Research poll pegged the Lugar-Mourdock race a virtual dead heat.

Andrew Ian Dodge will be hard pressed to raise the type of funds necessary to run the type of campaign that could threaten to unseat Senator Snowe in Maine; however, a strong anti-RINO blog current suggests that Olympia Snowe’s 2012 re-election bid will be won or lost in the primary election.

At present, the Tea Party movement’s Senate focus will likely coalesce around Ted Cruz as its lone rising star in the seats currently controlled by the Republican Party.

Dean Heller, with over $2 million cash on hand in his Nevada full-term Senate bid, will need Tea Party votes to fend off an expected Democrat assault.

Richard Mourdock may capture the conservative movement’s imagination in Indiana; and, with a few key endorsements and a well-managed chain of tactical PAC sponsorships, Andrew Dodge could be an unexpected primary winner and the next Republican Senator from Maine.

The current unknown in the Republican-controlled Senate seats is whether or not a Tea Party candidate will rise to challenge Scott Brown in Massachusetts for the 2012 nomination.

No viable Democrat candidates have yet filed papers to seek the U.S. Senate seats in Indiana, Maine, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Tennessee, Utah or Wyoming. Arizona Democrats are waiting to see if Gabby Giffords will be healthy enough to seek the Arizona nomination. Texas Democrats are angling to run retired Lieutenant General Sanchez against the Republican contender.

As an added bonus for Republicans, Nevada’s District 1 incumbent, Democrat House Representative Shelly Berkley, is seeking the Senate post currently held by Dean Heller, leaving a Nevada House seat vacant. Plus, results of a Public Policy Polling questionnaire lend a strong likelihood to the possibility that Utah Representative Jim Matheson might file to run for Senate against Hatch or Chaffetz, which would leave another House seat open for the likes of Attorney General Mark Shurtleff to make a run for Congress.

With nine out of ten seats well in hand in the upcoming referendum on the Obama Administration’s failed economic policies, the possibility of a super majority in the U.S. Senate will depend on the terrain of the 21 Democrat-controlled and two Independent seats on the ballot. The Tea Partiers are already digging in for the 2012 contests.

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Gary H. Johnson, Jr.: Foreign Policy Contributing Editor for the Tea Party Tribune, Senior Advisor for International Security Affairs at the Victory Institute, Contributing Editor at Family Security Matters, Jihad & SCF Consultant for hire.

Copyright © 2011 Tea Party Tribune - Tea Party & Political News All Rights Reserved.

Dems Try to Steal Votes Again?

John R. Houk
© August 12, 2010

The Tea Party Movement has developed fear and loathing from America’s Leftists especially those that hide behind the Democratic Party which seems is controlled today by a fringe of Left Wingers of which President Barack Hussein Obama is the Comrade Boss.

There has been an accusation since at least June in Florida that the Democrats have developed a strategy if you can’t beat’em – infiltrate’em and push Democratic Party candidates on a local level. Apparently Florida is not the only State in Union that has embarked on this political black-op to use Tea Party Movement charisma to overcome the “Throw them out of Office” American feeling that is wisely sweeping over the voters.

Nationally, Democrats say they intend to campaign against the tea party movement. But locally, Democratic officials and activists in at least four states now stand accused of collaborating with tea party candidates in an attempt to sabotage Republican challengers in some of the closest House races in the nation.

The charges of dirty tricks are being leveled in Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Jersey and Florida — and they involve more than a half-dozen contests that could tip the balance of power in the House.

The accusations range from helping tea party activists circulate candidate petition sheets to underwriting the creation of official tea parties, which then put forth slates of candidates that local conservatives accuse of being rife with Democratic plants.

In all of the affected races, the outcome is expected to be close enough that a third-party candidate who wins just a few percentage points could end up swinging the outcome to the Democratic congressman or candidate.

…

But the evidence of campaign tampering in at least two states is hard to dismiss. In Michigan, the [Democrat] party chairman in suburban Detroit’s Oakland County now concedes that one of his top aides played a role in helping nine tea party candidates get onto the ballot for various offices across the state — including the open 1st Congressional District and the 7th Congressional District, held by vulnerable freshman Democratic Rep. Mark Schauer…

Now, seven House seats are the subject of controversies that are spawning threats of lawsuits and criminal complaints and even pitting conservative tea party activists against one another.

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A similar scenario is unfolding in Florida, where there is also evidence — though not conclusive — of Democratic tampering. There, accusations of trickery have sparked a bitter battle among tea party activists.

The skirmishing began when grass-roots conservatives learned that a local attorney, Fred O’Neal, and a Republican political consultant in Orlando, Doug Guetzloe, had registered the Florida Tea Party with state election officials…

As local activists began digging into the backgrounds of O’Neal and Guetzloe, they discovered several connections between the consultant and Democratic Rep. Alan Grayson, an outspoken freshman who is at the top of GOP target lists.

Grayson advertised on Guetzloe’s conservative talk show. He also appointed Guetzloe to a small-business advisory group and Guetzloe’s son interned in the Democrat’s congressional office.

Armed with those links, tea party activists across the state accused the two men of forming a front group designed to help Democrats in tight elections…

[T]he accusations grew more heated when the Florida Tea Party released a slate of 20 candidates to run for state and federal offices.

Although the vast majority of the challengers are aimed at state officials, the organization recruited candidates for three important House races — two Republican-held open seats and the Grayson contest. (Excerpted from an excerpt from Sweetness & Light)

I believe Sweetness & Light provides a decent abbreviation of Democratic Party dirty tricks to keep the U.S. Congress in the Democratic Party hands and to grasp a Dem hold on the State level to be in the driver’s seat of drawing U.S. Congress Voting Districts up in a gerrymandering way to thwart a Conservative Republican come-back to save the nation from at the very least an Obamanation social transformation. Hopefully enough RINOs will be escorted out of the GOP to benefit Capitalism and a market economy before Americans become drones of U.S. Government power and desires.

Now I was alerted to the Dem agenda via a WorldNetDaily email alert that pointed to an article entitled, “WND's Miami conference dumps Florida Tea Party.” The reason the title caught my attention more than Dem Party black-ops conspiracy is that WND is a huge supporter of the Tea Party Movement. WMD attempts to persuade a unified front of the huge amount of Tea Party organizations across the nation via writing and being the conduit to bring various Tea Party organizations together on a local level to caucus their ideas between each other and those that are curious on how to get rid of Big Government and Excessive taxation.

Undoubtedly there are other issues emanating from various Tea Party organizations and I suspect the WND media crew led by Joseph Farah would like to add some other Conservative agendas to a unified Tea Party front to make the movement politically stronger. The significant core ideas of the Tea Party Movement though are anti-Big Government and anti-excessive taxation. The concept tends to toss a net of like-mindedness that stretches Political Parties whether they are Democrats or Republicans or many of the splinter politically Conservative Parties that are disaffected with Republican Party failure to combat Big Government.

Back to WMD: the headline gives the appearance of inter-Tea Party Movement dissension that could fracture the movement. My first thoughts found this distasteful. It turns out though that the Tea Party Movement has become unified to expose Leftist infiltration. For clarity’s sake the Dem Party mole infiltration of a Conservative Movement is to fool voters to either vote Dem Party or split the vote enough that a Dem Party candidate wins a three candidate race.

WMD is sponsoring a Tea Party Movement convention in Florida and has barred the Florida Tea Party from participating because local Dem Party apparent dirty tricks. Read it at WorldNetDaily.

JRH 8/12/10