DONATE

Showing posts with label Coup d'etat. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Coup d'etat. Show all posts

Wednesday, December 17, 2014

A Coup, Ted Cruz and Ben Carson

Obama the Constitution Destroyer
A Coup, Ted Cruz and Ben Carson
By Danny Jeffrey
Edited by John R. Houk
© December 17, 2014

On December 11 I cross posted Danny Jeffrey’s “Thirty Pieces of Silver” after my thoughts about that post entitled “Dems Betraying America – It will be Stopped One Way or Another”. On December 13 Danny commented on Facebook to my thoughts. Before I share Danny’s comment, here is what I wrote that I believe he is responding to:

Danny I sense that your outlook on America's elections and America's ruling elite among both the Dems and the GOP is very prescient. In my case I am probably one of those hard cases that desires to retain faith in the Constitutional process that America still enjoys. However, the scenario you have developed is extremely plausible. And that plausibility is very said (sic) for me.

A coup d’état by American Generals is also plausible. …

Danny’s comment provides the context in which he used the concept of a coup to remove our current political situation in the USA.

JRH 12/17/14
***********************
Danny Jeffrey Comment

Facebook Closed Group 1683 AD

Actually John, I am not certain of a coup but stated that this is the only way that Ted Cruz will ever occupy the White House. My projections have a terrible habit of becoming facts on short term projections or being validated by those in the know on the longer term ones.

I have long predicted the collapse and violent upheaval for late 2015 or early 2016 giving Obama a reason to 'delay' the election. Now we find that Dr. Ben Carson also suggests that there may not be an election in 2016. This is a man that many have considered for President. Dismiss my concerns but perhaps his views are worth considering.

Ben Carson

WND on Ben Carson: http://tinyurl.com/pfxhpjl

November of 2013 I suggested that the Iranians would deliver a nuke in a cargo ship to New York harbor where they would detonate it and spelled out exactly why we, not Israel, would be the target.

Fix Bayonets – Iran, Obama and Nuclear War pt 5: http://tinyurl.com/puantf2\

A short time later one of my regular readers sent me the following article with Obama telling us that he feared a nuclear explosion in Manhattan.
NY Daily News – Obama Worried Nuke Weapon set in Manhattan: http://tinyurl.com/kvr5gg9

Just a few days ago Thomas Sowell revealed that his greatest fear was that Iran would detonate a nuke in New York City.

Rush Limbaugh Show Transcript - Dr. Thomas Sowell's Greatest Fear: http://tinyurl.com/l8hnd6e

I am a Deist, not a Christian and like to believe that my projections are based purely on my understanding of causality, logic, and current events. However, five dedicated Christians, all knowing my beliefs...the most recent one a minister from Wisconsin, have told me that I am doing God's work. As a Deist I am inclined to dismiss their beliefs in divine intervention, but who knows for certain? As they say, 'God works in mysterious ways.'
_________________________
Edited by John R. Houk
Title by Editor derived from content.

© Danny Jeffrey

Thursday, December 11, 2014

Dems Betraying America – It will be Stopped One Way or Another

BHO Lying to America - Yes he can
John R. Houk
© December 11, 2014

Yesterday Danny Jeffrey wrote what many Conservative Patriots will find disturbing. Danny lays out the scenario of the Republican Establishment Elites running the GOP to the detriment of the Conservative vision to keep America great. Danny points out the Senator Cruz could be the last hope for a Reagan-like figure to set the ship of our Republic aright. He believes that never will happen because of the collusion of the GOP Establishment with the Leftist (Danny prefers the term “Progressive”) Dems in maintaining corruption duping America’s voters. Below is the comment I posted to his essay entitled “THIRTY PIECES OF SILVER”:

Danny I sense that your outlook on America's elections and America's ruling elite among both the Dems and the GOP is very prescient. In my case I am probably one of those hard cases that desires to retain faith in the Constitutional process that America still enjoys. However, the scenario you have developed is extremely plausible. And that plausibility is very sad for me.

A coup d’état by American Generals is also plausible. After all history shows us that when the Roman Republic's governing situation became too corrupt with deceit, bribes and manipulating the favor of Roman citizens eventually led to the Roman factions vying for popular Generals. Julius Caesar won. Then Octavius Caesar managed a coalition of winning Roman Generals that defeated die-hard Republic supporters (the supporters who were still faction oriented subject to bribes and corruption).

If the Constitutional process fails as you predict, then the American Republic will probably evolve to some kind of one-man rule able to maintain some kind coalition of Generals.

I neglected to mention that Octavius was Julius’ nephew and became what is consider the first Emperor of Rome. Julius’ family name became synonymous – Caesar – with Emperor for centuries of the Roman Empire. Octavius was considered a benevolent leader compared to future Caesars that would rule Rome. Octavius’ (or Octavian) named was changed to Augustus as a name of honor. His reign was about 45 years ending in 14 AD.

If the government becomes so corrupt that We the People and some annoyed people of power grow weary of the corruption maintained by the Dems and the apparent collusion of the Republican Establishment, could Senator Ted Cruz be America’s Octavius?

As I said I still have faith in the Constitution of America’s Republic. A coup d’état that threw off the Left Wing agenda would still be a government that would break the existence of that Constitution. America might remain great but for very different reasons than our Constitution made America great.

The only way to preserve America’s Constitution legacy is for a Ted Cruz-type leader to grip the attention of American voters either by taking over the GOP, forming a viable alternative political party or by forcing the constitutional path to a Constitutional convention in which delegates are chosen on a grassroots level rather than any political party national leadership.

If the constitutional process does not take effect, then most assuredly Danny Jeffries prescient predictions will come to fruition.

I encourage you to read Danny’s “Thirty Pieces of Silver”. Then you should really follow that up with at least Part Three of an ongoing essay entitled, “Conservatives in Fantasy Land” which was posted today 12/11/14. You probably will even desire to backtrack to Parts One and Two.

JRH 12/11/14
*****************************
THIRTY PIECES OF SILVER
Pieces of Silver

By Danny Jeffrey
December 10, 2014 12:59 AM

The term 'Thirty pieces of silver' always invokes the image of betrayal, and so you probably know where this essay is leading.

I have long written of my belief that there is NO political solution to the problems we face today. This one essay, Tahrir Square U.S.A., dates back to February of 2014. Allow me to offer an excerpt:

'I make no secret of the fact that I have absolutely no belief that there is a political solution to today's problems. No election is going to alter the course of this nation. If that course is to be altered it will be done only with an uprising of our people as we witnessed occurring in Tahrir Square in Egypt. Anything less and we are simply delaying until tomorrow what should have been done years ago.'


Another excerpt from the same essay:

'In a recent essay Of Moral Leaders And Sleeper Cells In The GOP I put forth the idea that the 2014 election that so many look forward to will change nothing. Even if we hold the House and gain the Senate the GOP is so heavily infiltrated by Progressives we are still on the road to ruin. The numbers that really matter are not Republicans vs Democrats, it is Progressives vs Patriots. That is where we come up short.'


Sadly most Americans have not yet come to the same realization that I did years ago. They, still following in the same beaten paths that their parents trod, grumble in near silence and await the next election when we hope we will get it right. My friends there will be no next election. Before November of 2016 we will see widespread anarchy and chaos, a financial collapse, and martial law. It is beginning right now. If in the unlikely event an election does come about it will simply be a well choreographed sham to appease those who still have not been able to comprehend what has already taken place.


One after another conservative 'heroes' have stepped forth uttering the right words and American conservatives have swooned over their new found messiah. Then one after another those messiahs have proven to have feet of clay as one after another they sold us out.


The one exception to that thus far, and I do believe him to be a man of true integrity, is Ted Cruz. Today, the frightened, the weary, and the desperate turn to Senator Cruz as our last and only hope. I hope that you choose to read past the bad news as that is where you will discover the truth.


The Bad News: Ted Cruz will never be President unless the American military stages a coup d'état and puts him into the Oval Office.

The Truth:

We hope to rid this nation of its emperor. Short of assuming the temporary powers of an emperor Ted Cruz could not possibly govern.

Here is why:

I am not telling you anything new in writing that the Democratic leadership sold us out long ago and have now become the next best thing to communists. Nor am I telling you anything new in writing that the GOP is in hot pursuit, following their Democratic allies to the far left, leaving us high and dry, leaderless and unrepresented in the process.

Years ago I wrote that there would never be another like Reagan. I grow more certain of that fact with each passing day, even though Cruz seems to have the same vision that Reagan once had. However, in this day and age Senator Cruz is the odd man out. The problem is that prior to Reagan the Progressives had been slowly changing our laws, taking over a little at a time then Reagan rocked the boat, and put America back on course. Years ago I wrote that the Progressives would never allow this to happen again. Today I am more convinced than then that I was correct.

Ronald Reagan was a man with a dream and he largely fulfilled that dream to the benefit of the American public, but he did not get into office without help from the leaders of the Republican Party. He did not choose George H.W. Bush as his running mate. The powers that be did, knowing that Bush would in all likelihood become the next President. He did indeed and shortly announced the coming of the New World Order
(Video).

The NWO which I now refer to as Transnational Progressives will never again allow one such as Ronald Reagan or Ted Cruz to influence the direction of world events. Nor will they ever allowPrince Charles as Muslim Jihadi another such as Margaret Thatcher in England. Today we have the likes of David Cameron telling his people they should be more like the Muslims and a member of the royal family leading the way. This is not just happening in the U.S., this progressive movement is gaining control of all of the nations of the west, and this is the group to which our elected officials are selling out. You have all heard of George Soros; he is but the front man, liking the lime light.

But out of desperation, hundreds of pro-Ted Cruz groups are forming, and many thousands of frightened followers believe him to be our last hope. Let us be realistic. I stated above that short of being emperor, Cruz could not govern. I shall now explain why.

So many have posted the rallying cry of 'Impeach Obama'. That will never happen as none in the Democratic Party and few in the GOP would vote for such a thing. Today ... Here and now ... Put Ted Cruz into the oval office and ALL Democrats and Most Republicans would vote for impeachment. Senator Cruz is one brave man and he has often revealed the intent of the Republican elite to you, making him none too popular with the puppet masters of the GOP and their puppet masters in the worldwide progressive movement. So many from his own party would love to have Cruz's head on a platter.

Obama has enemies to be certain, but not nearly as many as Ted Cruz. Hussein, knowing the ways of communism, has much in common with Joseph Stalin, including the practice of 'Keep your friends close but keep your enemies even closer.' Those who have opposed Obama have been bought off one at a time and brought into the fold; thirty pieces of silver, or perhaps thirty million. The exact terms of their capitulation matters not, but they each had their price.

Ted Cruz buys none. As a man of honor he appeals to the sense of honor he expects of his fellow Republicans, not yet understanding that they have none. The following two paragraphs are excerpted from my last essay Conservatives In Fantasy Land Part Two
, to illustrate my point:


Breitbart ... December 3, 2014

Cruz rallied the crowd saying, “This is a choice between truth and mendacity,” pointing out that many Republicans campaigned during the midterm elections on stopping executive amnesty.

“What I’m here urging my fellow Republicans to do is very, very simple. Do what you said you’d do"

Reread Ted Cruz's last sentence in the above excerpt. Why would he sound as though he is almost begging his fellow Republicans to honor their promise to the American people. Why should such a man have to beg? Should we not, in all fairness, expect them to honor their words?


But ... are they doing what they said that they would do?

I have used the following before to warn you of the traitors in the GOP. I use it here to illustrate why the same GOP will never allow Cruz to be elected, and I shall probably use it again when the situation demands for it is a powerful statement of fact.
Breitbart ... February 13, 2014

Excerpt:

“Make no mistake about it,” Cruz said. “This was their desired outcome. An awful lot of Republicans wanted exactly what Barack Obama, Nancy Pelosi, and Harry Reid wanted, which is to raise the debt ceiling. But, they wanted to be able to tell what they view as their foolish gullible constituents that they didn’t do it, and they’re mad because by my refusing to consent to [a bare-majority vote] they had to come out in the open and admit to that.”


As for anyone ice skating in hell, it is simply not going to happen, primarily because the GOP does not give a damn what you and I want and they seek Cruz's head on a chop block for revealing that fact.

From just a few days ago...
Breitbart ... December 7, 2014

Obama Congress Immigration

In a lengthy interview on Friday afternoon, Rep. Louie Gohmert (R-TX) exposed how House Speaker John Boehner, Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy and Majority Whip Steve Scalise strengthened President Barack Obama’s executive amnesty with procedural trickery former Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Obamacare architect Jonathan Gruber would envy—and they did it all in the name of pushing a bill that they told Republicans would block Obama’s executive amnesty.


First off, I find it impossible to believe that 216 House Republicans were tricked, nor that they needed to be. The House leaders agreed to be the bad guys to provide cover for the progressive sleeper cells in the Party.

Now to the next event. (From Today) And this pretty much says it all...


Breitbart ... December 9, 2014

There are 435 members of the House, and to pass this bill, Boehner and his allies—including Louisiana’s Republican Whip Steve Scalise and California’s Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy—need to get 218 votes. There are 234 Republicans in the House as the 113th Congress finishes its final days of the lame duck post-election session, meaning Boehner could theoretically pass a bill that all Republicans agree with.

But according to Arizona Republican Rep. Matt Salmon, a conservative, there are at least 50 Republicans—probably more—who won’t vote for this bill. If even 18 Republicans vote against the bill, that means Boehner needs Nancy Pelosi and her top lieutenant Steny Hoyer to get to 218.


Now look at the numbers above. 234 Republicans in the House. Fifty of them may choose to oppose Obama's treason. That is less than one in four Republicans, and counting the whole House, less than one in eight.

This is why I am telling you that Ted Cruz cannot get elected nor govern. Traitors far outnumber our patriots. The traitors could block his every move and pass anything they so choose, and when he vetoed their treachery, they would simply override the veto. This has always been the American way, and now it is being turned into a weapon against us.

I feel that Ted Cruz has the makings of a Reagan, a Lincoln, or a Jefferson, but he never will do so because he is in the wrong country. That comment has nothing to do with the debate about being born in Canada and his eligibility to run. It is my reflections on a statement made by John Adams so many years ago.


"Our Constitution was made only for a moral and religious people. It is wholly inadequate to the government of any other."


Ted Cruz is a man who believes in and would govern by the Constitution, but our people, due to their failing morality, parted company with the Constitution long ago. I cannot help but feel that so many our of (sic) citizens are undeserving of a man such as Senator Cruz.

Take a hop with me across the pond to the Netherlands where another great patriot is being hounded by the progressive overlords. Geert Wilders had the courage to warn his people of the Islamic danger, but such warnings are not politically correct. In fact a man can go to jail for speaking out against Islam.

Geert Wilders

Geert Wilders, in many ways reminds me of our own Senator Cruz. Both are men of conviction, men of integrity, and men of courage, and both are standing against an overwhelming tide of evil. I cannot help but believe that Ted Cruz would echo the words of Martin Luther King as quoted by Geert Wilders.


The Gatestone Institute ... December 9, 2014

To speak with the words of Martin Luther King: "I close by saying there is nothing greater in all the world than freedom. It's worth going to jail for. It's worth losing a job for. It's worth dying for."


Just above I mentioned that some of our people are undeserving of a man such as Senator Ted Cruz. With such people in mind I shall close this essay with a final thought, also from John Adams.


"Posterity! you will never know how much it cost the present generation to preserve your freedom! I hope you will make a good use of it. If you do not, I shall repent in Heaven that I ever took half the pains to preserve it."

Suggested Reading...

_______________________________
Dems Betraying America – It will be Stopped One Way or Another
John R. Houk
© December 11, 2014
_______________________________
THIRTY PIECES OF SILVER

From “Introduction to ‘Fix Bayonets’”


… My first website [Blog Editor: i.e. Freedom Rings 1776] was named with a sense of optimism, while this one is from a sense of desperation, for we are most assuredly losing in the political arena. Since Obama was first chosen by the Progressive overlords, we have been subjected to betrayal, deceit, a loss of liberty, and rampant corruption, and as an honest people, we simply do not know how to engage on their terms.

We seek truth while they propagate lies. We hope to engage in honest debate, but the Progressives shun that honesty for it exposes their plan of domination, while liberals turn away choosing not to know the truth. We hear epithets such as 'Racists', "Bigots', 'War on Women', and 'Islamophobia', while they delude America with feel good platitudes about 'equality', 'fairness', 'helping the poor', and 'sharing the wealth'; the very things the Founders warned about.

Look at the vicious attacks launched on those such as Sarah Palin, Michelle Bachmann, Ted Cruz, Luis Gohmert, and many others. The success of those attacks can be laid squarely in the laps of our RINOs, for they have infiltrated what was once the party of Lincoln and Reagan, and smear any who have the courage to stand for the Constitution. These traitors to us, their party, and our country, march in lockstep with our enemy for they have given their final seal of approval on what is to become of this nation.

I no longer sign petitions, phone my Representative, Email my Progressive Senators, or believe that there is any political solution to today's events, or the slightest hope of change in elections to come. Our enemies own the voting machines and adjust the vote as they deem appropriate. They allow people such as John McCain, Lindsey Graham, John Boehner, and Chris Christie to remain in office to foster the myth that the Republican Party is still viable and fighting for America, but this is no more than illusion, smoke and mirrors!

Such traitors have charted our course, and if we continue on the path they have laid out then we may as well take down the Stars and Stripes, and retire that noble standard with a solemn dignity, then behold the specter as the world slips into another dark age of a thousand years.

The entire Democratic Party has morphed into the American Communist Party, with the elite of the GOP following in hot pursuit, leaving us, the conservatives behind. They seek the votes of the growing multitude of those who put their own private agenda ahead of the entire future of the United States.

In short, I have cast off all of my once held beliefs in the wisdom of 'The People'. They are not wise. They are greedy, self centered, self serving, and could give a hoot less about what is happening to this once great nation. Of such people and their future I have no concern. I find strength in the company of those who still care for what this country was in our younger days, for they are the ones who have long carried the burden and kept the torch of freedom aglow.

We may well find that our efforts are too little and too late, but if freedom is ever restored it will be due to our efforts, and ours alone. Patriots gave birth to our liberty, and if that liberty is lost, then we have none to blame but ourselves. If on the other hand, it is ever reborn, it will be by
READ ENTIRETY

Saturday, January 29, 2011

Mubarak is Leaving One Way or the Other

Cairo Unrest 1-28-11

John R. Houk
© January 29, 2011

A crazy “throw the bums out” grassroots move has begun to spread across Muslim North Africa thanks to mob intimidation began in Tunisia. Although economics is undoubtedly the cause of regime change among despotic Muslim nations, the Muslims who wish to reform Islam to hearken back to the blood thirsty days of their Prophet Mohammed and the Prophet’s idea of converting the world to Islam are exploiting the unrest to become the leadership of the mob desiring change.

Egypt is succumbing big time to the Muslim mob unrest. Couple this that the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) is the largest political opposition to Egyptian President Mubarak’s regime, there is a fuse lit that is searching for the bomb that will ignite the Egyptian support of the Muslim Brotherhood to depose Mubarak and rule Egypt.

The MB is the Sunni version of Iran’s lunatic Shia Twelvers that gave the Shah of Iran the boot to replace him with the repressive theopolitical dictatorship of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. An MB success in wresting control of political control of Egypt would mean that the Salafist style of Islam would make the rules of governance in Egypt. This means hearkening back to strict observance of Sharia Law and possible establishment of a Caliphate. Egypt is the most populous Muslim nation in Africa (Nigeria is the most populous nation in Africa and Indonesia is the most population Muslim nation). Egypt’s population would make the nation a prime candidate to enthrone a Caliph especially since the most learned Islamic University known as Al Azhar is located in Cairo Egypt. The existence of a Caliphate undoubtedly will awaken Muslim courage to invade Israel to attempt to execute another Jewish Holocaust.

Check this out: STRATFOR has sent out an alert that the MB and the Palestinian terrorists known as Hamas are crossing the Gaza-Egyptian border to aid in destabilizing Egypt:

The following is a report from a STRATFOR source in Hamas. Hamas, which formed in Gaza as an outgrowth of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (MB), has an interest in exaggerating its role and coordination with the MB in this crisis. The following information has not been confirmed. Nonetheless, there is a great deal of concern building in Israel and the United States in particular over the role of the MB in the demonstrations and whether a political opening will be made for the Islamist organization in Egypt.

The Egyptian police are no longer patrolling the Rafah border crossing into Gaza. Hamas armed men are entering into Egypt and are closely collaborating with the MB. The MB has fully engaged itself in the demonstrations, and they are unsatisfied with the dismissal of the Cabinet. They are insisting on a new Cabinet that does not include members of the ruling National Democratic Party.

Security forces in plainclothes are engaged in destroying public property in order to give the impression that many protesters represent a public menace. The MB is meanwhile forming people’s committees to protect public property and also to coordinate demonstrators’ activities, including supplying them with food, beverages and first aid.

The MB enjoys telling the West the propaganda taqiyya that it is no longer a militant Islamist organization, but rather a disseminator of peaceful da’wa to convince Muslims to reform and hearken back to the days of Mohammed. Hamas is definitely militant and it is a terrorist organization AND Hamas is directly a subset of the MB among Arabs that call themselves Palestinians.

The one ironic element that might deliver Egypt from the Islamist MB is the Egyptian Army which might accomplish a coup against Mubarak which will bring in a rule of Generals rather than radical Muslim political entities. Egyptian Generals are not Islamist; rather the Generals are self-interested in maintaining a stable Egypt that excludes the Muslim Brotherhood. The unknown variable is that the rank and file Officers in the Egyptian Army is a bunch of MB sympathizers.

This hearkens back to the days just after WWII when a Colonel Gamal Abdel Nasser in the Egyptian Army with the aid of the Muslim Brotherhood exacted a mid-level Army coup against the British installed Egyptian Monarchy. The scary thing was the Muslim Brotherhood was highly connected to defeated Nazi regime of Adolf Hitler in the sense of European support against British suzerainty and a mutual hatred of Jews.

Nasser’s alliance did not stick long. Nasser eventually turned against the MB to aggrandize his political power to become a military dictator in Egypt. Nasser illegalized the MB and assassinated its early ideological leaders. This forced the MB to become a militant underground movement inside of Egypt. Over the years the MB still managed to gain Egyptian Muslim popularity and today runs candidates under other political auspices in Egypt’s legislature.

Although an Egyptian Army coup led by the Generals might solve the immediate concerns of the Egyptian populace and assuage fears of nations such as America and Israel, the Generals may fear another mid-level rank and file Officer coup similar to Nasser’s rise to power. The MB has infiltrated the rank and file of the Egyptian Army.

STRATFOR has a better elaboration of the possibilities that might arise with Mubarak receiving the boot as the dictator of Egypt.

JRH 1/29/11
**************************
The Egyptian Unrest: A Special Report

January 29, 2011 2207 GMT

Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak remains the lifeblood of the demonstrators, who still number in the tens of thousands in downtown Cairo and in other major cities, albeit on a lesser scale. After being overwhelmed in the Jan. 28 Day of Rage protests, Egypt’s internal security forces — with the anti-riot paramilitaries of the Central Security Forces (CSF) at the forefront — were glaringly absent from the streets Jan. 29. They were replaced with rows of tanks and armored personnel carriers carrying regular army soldiers. Unlike their CSF counterparts, the demonstrators demanding Mubarak’s exit from the political scene largely welcomed the soldiers. Despite Mubarak’s refusal to step down Jan. 28, the public’s positive perception of the military, seen as the only real gateway to a post-Mubarak Egypt, remained. It is unclear how long this perception will hold, especially as Egyptians are growing frustrated with the rising level of insecurity in the country and the army’s limits in patrolling the streets.

There is more to these demonstrations than meets the eye. The media will focus on the concept of reformers staging a revolution in the name of democracy and human rights. These may well have brought numerous demonstrators into the streets, but revolutions, including this one, are made up of many more actors than the liberal voices on Facebook and Twitter.

After three decades of Mubarak rule, a window of opportunity has opened for various political forces — from the moderate to the extreme — that preferred to keep the spotlight on the liberal face of the demonstrations while they maneuver from behind. As the Iranian Revolution of 1979 taught, the ideology and composition of protesters can wind up having very little to do with the political forces that end up in power. Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood (MB) understands well the concerns the United States, Israel and others share over a political vacuum in Cairo being filled by Islamists. The MB so far is proceeding cautiously, taking care to help sustain the demonstrations by relying on the MB’s well-established social services to provide food and aid to the protesters. It simultaneously is calling for elections that would politically enable the MB. With Egypt in a state of crisis and the armed forces stepping in to manage that crisis, however, elections are nowhere near assured. What is now in question is what groups like the Muslim Brotherhood and others are considering should they fear that their historic opportunity could be slipping.

One thing that has become clear in the past several hours is a trend that STRATFOR has been following for some time in Egypt, namely, the military’s growing clout in the political affairs of the state. Former air force chief and outgoing civil aviation minister Ahmed Shafiq, who worked under Mubarak’s command in the air force (the most privileged military branch in Egypt), has been appointed prime minister and tasked with forming the new government. Outgoing Intelligence Chief Omar Suleiman, who has long stood by Mubarak, is now vice president, a spot that has been vacant for the past 30 years. Meanwhile, Defense Minister Field Marshal Mohammed Hussein Tantawi (who oversees the Republican Guard) and Egypt’s chief of staff of the armed forces, Lt. Gen. Sami Annan — who returned to Cairo Jan. 29 after a week of intense discussions with senior U.S. officials — are likely managing the political process behind the scenes. More political shuffles are expected, and the military appears willing for now to give Mubarak the time to arrange his political exit. Until Mubarak finally does leave, the unrest in the streets is unlikely to subside, raising the question of just how much more delay from Mubarak the armed forces will tolerate.

The important thing to remember is that the Egyptian military, since the founding of the modern republic in 1952, has been the guarantor of regime stability. Over the past several decades, the military has allowed former military commanders to form civilian institutions to take the lead in matters of political governance but never has relinquished its rights to the state.

Now that the political structure of the state is crumbling, the army must directly shoulder the responsibility of security and contain the unrest on the streets. This will not be easy, especially given the historical animosity between the military and the police in Egypt. For now, the demonstrators view the military as an ally, and therefore (whether consciously or not) are facilitating a de facto military takeover of the state. But one misfire in the demonstrations, and a bloodbath in the streets could quickly foil the military’s plans and give way to a scenario that groups like the MB quickly could exploit. Here again, we question the military’s tolerance for Mubarak as long as he is the source fueling the demonstrations.

Considerable strain is building on the only force within the country that stands between order and chaos as radical forces rise. The standing theory is that the military, as the guarantor of the state, will manage the current crisis. But the military is not a monolithic entity. It cannot shake its history, and thus cannot dismiss the threat of a colonel’s coup in this shaky transition.

The current regime is a continuation of the political order, which was established when midranking officers and commanders under the leadership of Gamal Abdel Nasser, a mere colonel in the armed forces, overthrew the British-backed monarchy in 1952. Islamist sympathizers in the junior ranks of the military assassinated his successor, Anwar Sadat, in 1981, an event that led to Mubarak’s presidency.

The history of the modern Egyptian republic haunts Egypt’s generals today. Though long suppressed, an Islamist strand exists amongst the junior ranks of Egypt’s modern military. The Egyptian military is, after all, a subset of the wider society, where there is a significant cross- section that is religiously conservative and/or Islamist. These elements are not politically active, otherwise those at the top would have purged them.

But there remains a deep-seated fear among the military elite that the historic opening could well include a cabal of colonels looking to address a long-subdued grievance against the state, particularly its foreign policy vis-à-vis the United States and Israel. The midranking officers have the benefit of having the most direct interaction — and thus the strongest links — with their military subordinates, unlike the generals who command and observe from a politically dangerous distance. With enough support behind them, midranking officers could see their superiors as one and the same as Mubarak and his regime, and could use the current state of turmoil to steer Egypt’s future.

Signs of such a coup scenario have not yet surfaced. The army is still a disciplined institution with chain of command, and many likely fear the utter chaos that would ensue should the military establishment rupture. Still, those trying to manage the crisis from the top cannot forget that they are presiding over a country with a strong precedent of junior officers leading successful coups. That precedent becomes all the more worrying when the regime itself is in a state of collapse following three decades of iron-fisted rule.

The United States, Israel and others will thus be doing what they can behind the scenes to shape the new order in Cairo, but they face limitations in trying to preserve a regional stability that has existed since 1978. The fate of Egypt lies in the ability of the military to not only manage the streets and the politicians, but also itself.
_______________________
Mubarak is Leaving One Way or the Other
John R. Houk
© January 29, 2011
_____________________
The Egyptian Unrest: A Special Report

This report may be forwarded or republished on your website with attribution to www.stratfor.com

Copyright 2011