Saturday, August 31, 2013

Conventional Wisdom is to Stay out of Syria BUT is that the Correct Wisdom?

Kerry Declares 'Assad Used Chemical Weapons Multiple Times'
John R. Houk
© August 31, 2013

Yesterday Secretary of State John Kerry in news conference told Americans there is ample proof that al-Assad’s government used chemical weapons on civilian supporters of the Free Syrian Army in which most policy wonks believe is dominated by al Qaeda-like Islamists. That means if President Barack Hussein decides to attack in such a way that turns the Syrian civil war advantage back to the rebels then a Sunni version of Iran’s Shia crackpots will be the new government in Syria. On paper the appearance is American National Interests lose no matter who wins that civil war.


I follow the blog Freedom Rings 1776 operated by Danny Jeffrey. I have been paying close attention to his analysis that if Obama attack al-Assad’s government (See Also HERE) it will be a part of a ploy to engage the Soros Agenda to transfer the governments’ of the world into a Left Wing New World Order using Islamic radicalism as a trigger to engage a military catalyst with the Soros doctrine of Responsibility to Protect (R2P). Frankly I believe Danny’s analysis is very plausible one.

On the other hand chemical weapons have been unleashed in Syria. The Obama Administration WHOM I NEVER BELIEVE claims al-Assad is the perpetrator. Again many believe the Radical Muslim Free Syrian Army is the perpetrator either in trying to turn the tide of al-Assad recent victories or as a smokescreen propaganda tool to blame Assad and entice the USA to get involved militarily.
The point is that chemical weapons were used in direct contradiction to International Convention against the use of chemical weapons in warfare. Here is a brief summary of the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC):
The CWC aims to eliminate an entire category of weapons of mass destruction by prohibiting the development, production, acquisition, stockpiling, retention, transfer or use of chemical weapons by States Parties. States Parties, in turn, must take the steps necessary to enforce that prohibition in respect of persons (natural or legal) within their jurisdiction.
All States Parties have agreed to chemically disarm by destroying any stockpiles of chemical weapons they may hold and any facilities which produced them, as well as any chemical weapons they abandoned on the territory of other States Parties in the past. States Parties have also agreed to create a verification regime for certain toxic chemicals and their precursors (listed in Schedules 1, 2 and 3 in the Annex on Chemicals to the CWC) in order to ensure that such chemicals are only used for purposes not prohibited.
A unique feature of the CWC is its incorporation of the 'challenge inspection', whereby any State Party in doubt about another State Party's compliance can request the Director-General to send an inspection team. Under the CWC's 'challenge inspection' procedure, States Parties have committed themselves to the principle of 'any time (sic), anywhere' inspections with no right of refusal.
The Convention on the Prohibition of the Development, Production, Stockpiling and Use of Chemical Weapons and on Their Destruction (the 'CWC', or the 'Convention') aims to eliminate an entire category of weapons of mass destruction by prohibiting the development, production, acquisition, stockpiling, retention, transfer or use of chemical weapons by States Parties.
The States Parties to this Convention -Determined to act with a view to achieving effective progress towards general and complete disarmament under strict and effective international control, including the prohibition and elimination of all types of weapons of mass destruction, -Desiring to contribute to the realization of the purposes and principles of the Charter of the United Nations.. (READ ENTIRETY - Convention on the Prohibition of the Development, Production, Stockpiling and Use of Chemical Weapons and on their Destruction (Chemical Weapons Convention); Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons [OPCW])
You can download the official text of the CWC HERE. You can read specifics on the CWC from the NGO Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI). In full disclosure the NTI was founded by Ted Turner and (probably to add political credibility) former Senator Sam Nunn (D-GA). If you check the NTI Leadership and Staff page you will a combination of Leftists, RINOs and even some representing Islamic interests. The NTI seems to provide a decent summary which is why I point to it; however as a formulator of Think Tank policy I would be very wary of conclusions and suggestions.
At the point of my writing my thoughts the Brits have pulled out of supporting the USA in a punitive military expedition against Assad. I watch the news station that Leftists and hard core Conservatives love to hate – Fox News. This news services seems to indicate they believe Obama will do a go-it-alone strike against Syria BUT also seems to be drawing back in reticence most likely because of the Brits very public withdrawal. Also big dogs Russia and China are supportive of Assad. AND Assad has insinuated they will launch an all-out attack on the USA’s primary ally in the region – Israel. If Obama breaks his pattern of Foreign Policy weakness and launches an attack on Syria such action would follow Danny Jeffrey’s analysis of an R2P conspiracy to terminate Israel to curry favor with hate-Jews/hate-Israel Muslim Arabs. If Obama backs off the President will again show the world he is a weak-kneed global leader incapable of committing to a consistent Foreign Policy.
Contrary to many of my fellow Conservatives and Obama’s Leftist base, think militarily removing Assad has more short term positives to American National Interests than should be passed up. The Egyptian military is dropping the hammer on the Muslim Brotherhood and the Egyptian military currently desires to keep the U.S. military flowing. If the Egyptian military maintains that hammer it is unlikely that U.S. military aid will find its way to Muslim Brotherhood revolutionary favorites such as Hamas and the Free Syrian Army to be used nefariously against Israel. A week Syrian government minus Assad messes up Iran’s connection to client terrorist organization Hezbollah in Lebanon. Sunnis hate Shias as much as both hate Jews. Perhaps a Sunni Islamist government in Syria will be a tool to diminish Hezbollah to allow the remaining Christians and Sunnis in Lebanon to take back their nation from the Shia terrorist organization. AND it would be in Israel’s National Interests to facilitate a weakening of Hezbollah as well. That is the short term potential benefits of removing Bashar al-Assad.
The problem for America and Israel is the unknowability of both nation’s long term National Interests. If a Democrat is elected to the Presidency in 2016 then Israel National Security will be in danger. If a RINO is elected in 2016 Israel’s existence won’t be as threatened but if the RINO pushes for the creation of a Palestinian that will be an existential threat to Israel. If a true Conservative is elected in 2016 America’s National Interests will be in better shape with at least a stealth weakening via Intelligence services of the weak Islamist nations and the promise of aid to the stronger Muslim nations. The use of a kind of carrot and stick balance to the region with Israel either participating in concert or exerting unilateral espionage points that the USA ignores.
There are a lot of variables involved in a decision to attack Syria or not to attack. Each variable may lead to a variety of plusses or minuses for or against the USA and Israel. Frankly those variables could may slant the wrong way if Danny Jeffrey is correct about a Soros-Obama agenda. I don’t trust Obama. Do you?
JRH 8/31/13
WATCH: Kerry Declares 'Assad Used Chemical Weapons Multiple Times'
Aug 30 2013 1:38pm
Secretary of State John Kerry delivered a statement moments ago on the chemical attack in Syria.

Kerry said that the intelligence community has “carefully reviewed and rereviewed information regarding this attack,” and that the “United States government now knows that at least 1429 Syrians were killed in this attack including at least 426 children.”
He continued, “Even the first responders - the doctors, nurses, and medics who tried to save them - they became victims themselves. We saw them gasping for air, terrified that their own lives were in danger. This indiscriminate, inconceivable horror of chemical weapons. This is what Assad did to his own people.”
“We know that the Assad regime has the largest chemical weapons program in the entire Middle East. We know that the regime has used those weapons multiple times this year […] We know that for three days before the attack, the Syrian regime’s chemical weapons personnel were on the ground in the area making preparations. And we know that the Syrian regime elements were told to prepare for the attack by putting on gas masks and taking precautions associated with chemical weapons.”
He stressed that this “crime against humanity” could not go unpunished.

[Editor: The Fox News Insider webpage has two News coverage videos and the transcript of what would have been the third part. I found a 19 minute version of the news conference which I am posting here.]
Posted by YouHotNews
Published on Aug 30, 2013
News Conference Speech 8/30/2013
Kerry Says Assad, A 'Thug And Murderer,' Was Behind Attack
(WashingtonPost) Secretary of State John F. Kerry made a forceful case Friday for U.S. military intervention in Syria, saying that U.S. intelligence has information pinning responsibility for last week's chemical weapons attack squarely on the government of President Bashar al-Assad.

In a speech at the State Department, Kerry said that for three days before the Aug. 21 attack, the Syrian regime's chemical weapons personnel "were in the area, making preparations" for the strike. He also said that "regime elements were told to prepare for the attack by putting on gas masks" and taking other precautions. And he said U.S. intelligence knows that the rockets containing the poison gas were launched only from "regime-controlled areas."

Two years after the first anti-government protests, conflict in Syria rages on. See the major events in the country's tumultuous uprising.

The attack killed more than 1,400 Syrians, including 426 children, Kerry said.

"The American people are tired of war," Kerry said, adding that he is also. "But fatigue does not absolve us of our responsibility." He said that "history would judge us all extraordinarily harshly" if the United States does not respond to the use of chemical weapons by the Syrian government.

Kerry spoke after French President Francois Hollande said Friday that his country is prepared to act in Syria despite Britain's surprise rejection of military action, potentially making
READ THE REST at video page
[Editor: Back to Fox News Insider]
Part Three:
[fnivideo 2638886718001]
Below is an ongoing transcript of Kerry's remarks.
President Obama has spent many days now consulting with Congress and talking with leader around the world about the situation in Syria.
Last night the President asked all of us on his National Security team to consult with the leaders of Congress as well; including the leadership of the Congressional National Security committees.
And he asked us to consult about what we know regarding the horrific chemical weapons attack in the Damascus suburbs last week.  I will tell you that as someone who has spent nearly three decades in the United States Congress, I know that that consultation is the right way for a President to approach a decision of when and how and if to use military force.
And it's important to ask the tough questions and get the tough answers before taking action, not just afterwards. And I believe, as President Obama does, that it is also important to discuss this directly with the American people.
That's our responsibility; to talk with the citizens who trusted all of us in the administration and the Congress with responsibility for their security.
That's why this morning's release of our government's unclassified estimate of what took place in Syria is so important.
Its findings are as clear as they are compelling.  I'm not asking you to take my word for it.  Read for yourself, everyone, those listening, all of you, read for yourselves the evidence from thousands of sources; evidence that is already publicly available.
And read for yourselves the verdict reached by our intelligence community about the chemical weapons attack the Assad regime inflicted on the opposition and on opposition controlled or contested neighborhoods in the Damascus suburbs on the early morning of August 21.
Our intelligence community has carefully reviewed and re-reviewed information regarding this attack. And I will tell you, it has done so more than mindful of the Iraq experience.
We will not repeat that moment. Accordingly, we have taken unprecedented steps to declassify and make facts available to people who can judge for themselves.
But still, in order to protect sources and methods, some of what we know will only be released to members of Congress, the representatives of the American people.  That means that some things we do know, we can't talk about publicly.
So what do we really know that we can talk about?     Well, we know that the Assad regime has the largest chemical weapons programs in the entire Middle East.  We know that the regime has used those weapons multiple times this year and has used them on a smaller scale but still it has used them against its own people, including not very far from where last Wednesday's attack happened.
We know that the regime was specifically determined to rid the Damascus suburbs of the opposition, and it was frustrated that it hadn't succeeded in doing so.  We know that for three days before the attack, the Syrian regime's chemical weapons personnel were on the ground in the area, making preparations.
And we know that the Syrian  regime elements were told to prepare for the attack by putting on gas masks and taking precautions associated with chemical weapons.  We know that these were specific instructions.
We know where the rockets were launched from, and at what time. We know where they landed, and when.  We know rockets came only from regime-controlled areas and went only to opposition-controlled or contested neighborhoods.
And we know, as does the world, that just 90 minutes later all hell broke loose in the social media.  With our own eyes we have seen the thousands of reports from 11 separate sites in the Damascus suburbs.
All of them show and report victims with breathing difficulties, people twitching with spasms, coughing, rapid heartbeats, foaming at the mouth, unconsciousness, and death.  And we know it was ordinary Syrian citizens who reported all of these horrors.
Conventional Wisdom is to Stay out of Syria BUT is that the Correct Wisdom?
John R. Houk
© August 31, 2013
WATCH: Kerry Declares 'Assad Used Chemical Weapons Multiple Times'
© 2013 FOX News Network, LLC. All rights reserved.

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