The Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism
Information Center (ITIC) has put together an analysis
of Islamic terrorist attacks that ISIS has taken credit.
The ITIC divides ISIS claims into a “short form” and a “long
form”. The short form claims are classed as ISIS inspired. The long form claims
are classed as ISIS directed.
The short form claims occur primarily in Western nations
such as the recent Islamic terrorist attacks in Spain. The long form claims are
located primarily in Muslim dominated nations.
The differentiation is interesting yet in my opinion,
whether inspired or directed, the operation is a horrendous evil that must be
dealt with in a brutal manner. A brutal response is standard procedure in Middle
Eastern and Maghreb (North African Muslim) nations. Due to the
influence of Leftist Multicultural politics, a brutal response is politically
incorrect.
Unless Western nations can eschew political correctness,
Islamic terrorists will continue to ravage Western nations.
JRH 8/21/17
*************
Analysis of ISIS’s
Claims of Responsibility for Terrorist Attacks Carried Out Abroad
Published August 20, 2017
Overview[1]
This study examines the forms
of ISIS's claims of responsibility for terrorist attacks it carried out
abroad (i.e., not in Iraq and Syria, its "core countries").
It covers 22 claims of responsibility for attacks carried out between
June 2016 and June 2017. The study shows a close correlation between
the form of the various claims and the types and locations of the attacks. The
ITIC is of the opinion that the insights gained from the
study can be a used as a methodological tool to examine ISIS claims of
responsibility and assess their significance.
Ø Most of the attacks examined for
this study were carried out by ISIS in Western countries (the
United States and western Europe), some in Arab-Muslim countries (Egypt,
Turkey Iran) and some in others (Israel, Russia, Kenya). In
ITIC assessment, most of the attacks in the West were ISIS-inspired, that
is, inspired by but not directed by ISIS, without its logistic support or the
involvement of its external operational headquarters in choosing a target or
reaching it. Some of the attacks (especially in Arab-Muslim countries) were
planned by ISIS, and preceded by the methodical collection of intelligence,
procuring weapons and training the operative or operatives who carried them
out.
Ø A comparison of the various
claims of responsibility indicates that three different patterns are
used:
Ø The "short form:" The most frequently used type of claim of
responsibility. It uses phrases and terms that repeat themselves in most of the
announcements. In ITIC assessment the short form is relevant mostly for
ISIS-inspired attacks carried out in the West. The announcements are
composed after the attack and disseminated within a short time (usually
the day after the attack). Apparently whoever composes the
announcements prefers not to include unnecessary details because the full
picture is not yet sufficiently clear and in order not to reveal the fact that
the announcements were written after the attack and the terrorists who carried
out the attack do not have an organizational link to ISIS.[2] Short-form
announcements are similar to one another but not identical (with
small, insignificant differences in terminology and style).
Ø The "long form:" Such claims of responsibility are long and
detailed, and include information about the attack and explicit reasons for
their having been carried out. They are issued mainly for attacks which
were planned in advance and for which ISIS paid attention to the aspect of
propaganda. They are most commonly used for attacks carried out in
Arab-Muslim countries. They are regularly issued in Syria, Iran and other
countries where there are branches of ISIS (e.g., the Sinai Peninsula). The
attacks examined for this study revealed four such claims of responsibility:
for the suicide bombing attack in the Coptic cathedral in Cairo (December 12,
2016); the shooting attack in the nightclub in the heart of Istanbul (January
1, 2017), and the combined suicide bombing and shooting attack in Tehran (June
7, 2017). The announcement issued after the suicide bombing attack in
Manchester (May 22, 2017) also belongs to that category.[3]
Ø Claims of responsibility including
videos: About one third of the
short-form announcements issued after ISIS-inspired attacks included
videos, in most cases published after the attack. In each instance
the video was filmed at the initiative of the terrorists who carried out the
attack. They photographed themselves before the attack and sent the
pictures to ISIS, which were published by its Amaq news agency (or
by other media). There were also several instances of attacks
photographed and the pictures published in real time. The videos included
threats against Western countries and oaths of allegiance to ISIS leader Abu
Bakr al-Baghdadi. The inclusion of videos increases the propaganda
impact of the attacks. The attack in Tehran, which was well-planned, was
photographed in real time as part of the overall the plan. In Syria and Iraq,
and other Arab-Muslim countries where provinces of ISIS operate. It is very
common for long-form claims of responsibility to be accompanied by videos
prepared in advance (especially when suicide bombing attacks are
carried out).
Larossi Abballa, who stabbed a French police officer and his partner
to death in the residential commune of Magnanville, north-west of Paris. He
photographed himself with his cell phone. As part of the video he recorded
himself swearing allegiance to ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi (Amaq, June 14,
2016).
Ø During the period studied, one
instance of an ISIS-inspired attack was found for which ISIS did not
claim responsibility. On June 8, 2016, two terrorist operatives carried out
a shooting attack in the Sarona commercial and entertainment complex in the
heart of Tel Aviv (four killed, seven wounded). The two attackers were
inspired by ISIS; one of them had been influenced by ISIS ideology
while studying in Jordan. They were assisted by a third operative, who
provided them with weapons. ISIS did not claim responsibility for the attack
despite the media capital it could have made from inspiring an attack in Tel Aviv.
ISIS's motives for not claiming responsibility are unclear. It is possible that
ISIS did not have sufficient information about the attack while it was being
carried out to indicate the terrorists had been inspired by the organization.
Ø How reliable are ISIS's claims
of responsibility? In ITIC
assessment, most of the attacks for which ISIS claims responsibility
were in fact carried out by its operatives (planned attacks), or
by terrorists who were inspired by the organization (inspired
attacks). However, those are exceptional cases. For example,
through its Amaq news agency, ISIS claimed responsibility for the combined
shooting and stabbing attack carried out near the Nablus Gate in the Old City
of Jerusalem (June 16, 2017). According to the announcement, the attack was
carried out by the "lions of the caliphate in the Palestine Province [of
ISIS]." In ITIC assessment, the announcement was false, and
reflected ISIS's desire to boast of a success in a symbolic location such as
"Palestine," given the severe pressure exerted on the
organization in Syria and Iraq.
In conclusion, an
examination of the claims of responsibility revealed a connection between the
pattern of announcement and the nature and location of the attack. Short-form announcements seem to
indicate an ISIS-inspired attack, usually carried out in a Western
country, primarily by Muslims or people who have converted to Islam, been
radicalized, and identify with ISIS's ideology. Long-form
announcements, on the other hand, seem to indicate a previously-planned ISIS attack.
They are usually carried out in Syria, Iraq and Arab-Muslim countries,
where ISIS has high operational capabilities.[4] Videos are
included in claims of responsibility for both ISIS-inspired attacks and planned
attacks. The difference between them is that in ISIS-inspired attacks the
inclusion of a video is improvised and inserted on the initiative of
the terrorists who carry them out, and then disseminated by ISIS's
propaganda machine. In planned attacks, publishing videos is part of
preparations for the attack and attention is given to the aspect of propaganda. ISIS
uses many languages in its announcements, depending on the target audience (Arabic
and English are popular languages for the videos).
Composition and style
of ISIS's claims of responsibility
Short-form announcements
Ø The following are the
various linguistic and content characteristics of
claims of responsibility issued as short-form announcements:
v Headline: The headline includes the source of the announcement
(usually ISIS's Amaq news agency), the date and the degree of urgency.
v Body of the announcement: The announcement is usually written in modern
Arabic, short and succinct. In most cases the language is grammatically
correct.
v Source: Information is often attributed to "a
security source." In ITIC assessment, that creates the impression (not
always accurate) that ISIS has access to "security sources" with
knowledge about the attack in whatever country it occurred. Sometimes only a
"source" is mentioned.
v Timing of releasing the
announcement: In most instances, the
announcement is issued the day after the attack. In exceptional instances, it
is issued on the same day or two days later.
v Language: ISIS issues the announcements in Arabic,
but obviously makes the attempt to issue them in the language of the country
where the attack took place. For ISIS-inspired attacks, some of the
announcements are also presented in English, to increase the impact of ISIS's
message on Western audiences. The claim of responsibility for the attack at
the night club in Istanbul also appeared in Turkish.
v Publisher: Most of the claims of responsibility for attacks in
the West are issued by ISIS's Amaq news agency. It also issues
claims of responsibility for attacks carried out in Syria, Lebanon and the
Arab-Muslim world. Most of the announcements in the Middle East are issued
by Haq, another ISIS news agency. In one instance (the attack in
Manchester) Amaq issued a short announcement in Arabic and Haq issued two
longer announcements, one in Arabic and one in English.
v Names of the operatives: Generally speaking, the names and pictures
of the operatives who carried out attacks do not appear. On exceptional
occasions the aka of the terrorist, which relates to his country of origin,
does appear. The aka is not necessarily accurate: in one instance a terrorist
was reported as "Abu Yusuf the Belgian," when in fact he came from
Algeria.
v Description of the attack: Attacks are described as "attacks"
or "operational actions". On rare occasions the term is "an
armed attack". In ITIC assessment, there is no real difference between
the terms. Another term used is "an act of self-sacrifice,” which
describes a suicide bombing attack (which are fundamentally different from
other types of attacks).
v Number of victims: Often the number of victims is not mentioned
(possibly because of the lack of precise information). Sometimes the
number is a combination of those killed and wounded. That is done to
magnify the attack and make it seem like a greater
"achievement."
v Terms for the coalition
attacking ISIS: In most instances,
the forces of the coalition attacking ISIS are referred to as "Crusaders."
Sometimes the coalition is referred to as "international."
However, the word "Christian" appears more than "Crusaders"
to describe the people who are the targets of ISIS attacks. In ISIS's
perception a religious war is being fought, Muslims against Christians,
in which Muslims indiscriminately attack Christians.
v Reason for the attack: The most common reason for an attack comes in answer
to ISIS's call to attack the countries of the coalition fighting ISIS in Syria
and Iraq. The objective is to exert pressure on the citizens of the coalition
countries, creating public opinion to stop the attacks on the Islamic State.
Analysis of long-form
announcements
Ø Long-form announcement have several
unique features:
v Pattern and language: The long-form announcements are written in
classic literary Arabic, are clearly Islamic in style, and use religious
terminology. For example, mushrikin (polytheist), fitna (civil
war), amir al-mu'minin (ruler of the
faithful), Salibyin (Crusaders), and khilafa(caliphate).
Alongside such terms there are also worlds from modern Arabic.
v Description, location and
manner of the attack: The attack is
described at length and has details which do not appear in short-form
announcements. For example, a suicide bomber with an explosive belt blew
himself up in an [sic] suicide bombing attack targeting a gathering of local
Christians [i.e., Copts] in the central cathedral in Cairo. The location of the
attack is mentioned to stress the size of the attack and because it was centrally
located and crowded. Other long-form announcements were issued for the attacks
on the nightclub in Istanbul and the Manchester Arena to illustrate that they
were carried out in crowded sites.
v Detailed description of the
target using Islamic terminology:
Long-form announcements include details about the targets. In Egypt, the Copts were
called Crusaders (Salibyin) or "Christians in Egypt." The
announcement also referred to Muslims who had allegedly abandoned Islam,
calling them "infidels" and "abandoners of Islam." The
announcement about the attack in the nightclub in Istanbul accused Turkey of
being an Islamic country that had abandoned Islam, calling it "the
defender of the cross" (i.e., as having left Islam).
Justification for the
attacks
Ø The announcements chosen for
examination indicate that the justification for carrying out terrorist
attacks, including indiscriminate attacks, is based on
religious arguments, at the center of which is the struggle of Muslims against
Christians and "infidels," that is, people of other religions holding
different beliefs. The terrorist who carries out the attack is called a
"soldier" in the ranks of the Islamic State, who fights against its enemies
under the direction of the "emir of the faithful,” that is, the caliph
(ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi). Another justification for the attacks
appearing in many announcements is revenge against the coalition
countries and other enemies fighting ISIS, which it represents as
enemies of Islam and Muslims. ISIS exerts pressure on their citizens by
terrifying them (the announcements use the term irhab, which means
to frighten or sow fear among people, and does not mean to carry out a
terrorist attack).
The main message sent by
the claims of responsibility and ISIS's primary objective as reflected in them
is the following: ISIS continues to
wage a holy war (jihad) against its many enemies, including Christians ("Crusaders"), Shi'ites (rejecters
of Islam), Muslims who abandoned Islam, and anyone who is not
monotheistic, according to ISIS's interpretation. ISIS's primary objective is
to spread its version of Islam around the globe following its victory over the
various "infidels." That is an overall goal when has no
genuine chance of being achieved, but it turned a large number of states and
population groups into enemies, which ISIS feels it has religious justification
to kill.
Representing
terrorism as a religious war between Muslims and Christians. The cover of the July 2017 issue of ISIS's
English-language magazine, Dabiq. In the picture an Islamic
State "soldier" tears down a cross atop a church. The cover of the
magazine reads, "Break the Cross" (Dabiq, issue #15, July 2016).
[1] The full English version of this bulletin will
appear on the ITIC website. The full Hebrew version can be accessed on the ITIC
website. ↑
[2] In the past ISIS did not customarily issue
claims of responsibility for ISIS-inspired attacks. Apparently, during 2016,
when they became a significant modus operandi in the West, a general
announcement was composed that was relevant for ISIS-inspired attacks. ↑
[3] Other examples of attacks carried out in Europe,
after which a long-form claim of responsibility was issued, were the attacks at
the airport in Brussels and the attack near the headquarters of the EU (both on
March 22, 2016). It was a well-planned attack and considerable
attention was paid to the aspect of propaganda. ↑
[4] Attacks carried out by ISIS operatives in Syria
and Iraq were not examined in this study. ↑
______________
About ITIC
The Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center (ITIC)
was established in 2002. It is part of the Israel Intelligence Heritage and
Commemoration Center (IICC), a national site dedicated to the memory of fallen
of the Israeli intelligence community. The ITIC is located near Gelilot, north
of Tel Aviv, and is directed by (Col. Ret.) Dr. Reuven Erlich. The objective of
the ITIC is to collect, study, and disseminate information mainly about
terrorism and intelligence.
The main research topics in the field of terrorism:
Ø
The Palestinian terrorist
organizations, their ideology, activities and military capabilities, their
political activity, and their international battle for hearts and minds.
Ø
The Palestinian Authority
and the de-facto Hamas administration in the Gaza Strip.
Ø
The Israeli-Palestinian
conflict.
Ø
Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Ø
Global jihad organizations,
mainly ISIS and Al-Qaeda.
Ø
Funding and marketing
terrorism.
Ø
States which sponsor
terrorism, mainly Iran and Syria.
Ø
The campaign to
delegitimize Israel.
Ø
Anti-Semitism and
incitement to terrorism and hatred directed against the State of Israel and the
Jewish people.
Ø
Iran and its policy toward
terrorism and the State of Israel.
The Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center employs a staff
of experts who research the various aspects of terrorism. They monitor the
day-to-day events in the field of terrorism, collect the relevant information,
process and analyze the data, and regularly issue information bulletins and
in-depth studies about the ITIC’s fields of interest. The ITIC publications
include periodic and in-depth studies on various issues.
The Institute for the Research of Intelligence and Policy operating
as part of the ITIC is engaged in research on intelligence issues. Its main
topics are … READ THE REST
