John R. Houk
© October 18, 2017
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has put
together a map showing how the Russian
military is targeting civilians in Putin’s effort to support Iranian client
dictator Bashar al-Assad to remain in power in Syria.
Take notice of the regimes in full military cooperation to
keep al-Assad in power: Russia, Iran and incredulously NATO-member Turkey.
Russia officially may not be a Communist nation, but an old
Communist former-Soviet Union KGB officer runs Russia in Vladimir Putin. Ever
since the October 1917 Lenin led Communist revolution overthrew and assassinated
the Russian Czar and the entire royal family, Russia has been no friend of the
USA.
Iran ceased being an American friend after crazy Khomeini
kicked out the Shah, killing royal loyalists, killing
fellow anti-Shah revolutionaries,
including Western-minded Iranian civilians,
and allow Khomeini activists to overrun the U.S.
Embassy in Tehran holding American Embassy staff under for 444
days.
Turkey became an essential Cold War ally of the U.S. because
the Communist Soviet Union was an actual threat to the Turkish Republic. Hence,
Turkey became a member of NATO in Europe’s goal to be protected from Russian
Communist imperialism which at the time made Eastern Europe Communist vassals.
What changed with Turkey?
One – Russia became less a Communist global exporter and
more a nationalist power broker. Two – Turkey under Erdogan’s leadership, has
experienced a revival of Islamic originalism. Meaning Turkey is on a path to be
a Sunni radical Islamic propagator as much as Iran is a radical Shia Islamic
propagator. The only redeeming factor Turkey-Iran is eventually the age-old
Sunni-Shia rivalry will eventually click in. Until Sunni-Shia mutual hatred
diverts Turkey and Iran, Russia, Iran and Turkey have one mutual interest of
taking down American power. Eventually all three will turn on each other, but
until then American National Interests will face a tough road of uneasy
speculative choices.
JRH 10/18/17
****************
*This e-mail is being resent
with the corrected title and dates in the banner. We apologize for any
inconvenience.
Russia Renews Targeting Civilians
[Info pertains to these dates: August 14 - October 7,
2017]
By Matti Suomenaro and the ISW Syria and Turkey Teams
Sent 10/17/2017 8:40 AM
Email sent from: press@understandingwar.org
Russia renewed its violent, indiscriminate air campaign against
civilians in Western Syria in order to coerce groups opposed
to the Bashar al-Assad regime to accept a ceasefire or ‘de-escalation zone’ in
Idlib Province. Russia shifted its air campaign to target rebel-held terrain in
Idlib and Hama Provinces following an offensive launched by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) –
the successor of Syrian al Qaeda affiliate Jabhat Fatah al-Sham – in Northern
Hama Province on September 19. The Russian Ministry of Defense launched an
immediate disinformation operation to
present this shift in its air campaign as a legitimate series of strikes
against extremist groups attempting to disrupt a ‘de-escalation zone’ in Idlib
Province brokered by Russia,
Turkey, and Iran on September 15. Russia nonetheless mounted a systematic
campaign of airstrikes against civilian infrastructure – including hospitals, schools, power stations, and mosques – as well as
former U.S.-backed rebel groups unaffiliated with HTS or al Qaeda. The strikes
marked a return to the widespread punitive air campaigns Russia previously
directed against opposition-held terrain across Western Syria. Russia also
employed advanced weapons systems to further inflict violence against Idlib
Province under the guise of counter-terrorism operations. The Russian Black Sea
Fleet’s Permanent Mediterranean Task Force launched
Kalibr cruise missiles targeting Ma’arat al-Numan in
Southern Idlib Province on September 22. Russia Tu-95MS ‘Bear’ strategic
bombers later launched Kh-101 cruise missiles targeting the outskirts of Idlib
City on September 26. Russia’s deliberate use of violence against civilians
precludes any legitimate, Russian-enforced ‘de-escalation’ zone in Idlib
Province.
Russia also leveraged its ongoing air campaign to co-opt
Turkey away from the U.S. and NATO in order to further set conditions for the
planned ‘de-escalation zone’ in Idlib. Russia concentrated its airstrikes in
areas of Western Idlib Province along the Syrian-Turkish Border from September
25 - 30. The Russian Air Force likely sought to interdict the movement of HTS
and opposition forces ahead of a Turkish Armed Force (TSK) deployment into
Idlib by targeting rebel-held areas connecting Western Aleppo Province to the
Bab al-Hawa Border Crossing on the Syrian-Turkish Border as well as key supply
routes around Idlib City. Turkish President Recep Erdogan subsequently announced the start of
cross-border operations to implement the Idlib ‘de-escalation zone’ on October
7. Erdogan stated that Russia would support his intervention. The TSK began
deployments to observation positions in Northern Idlib Province near the
majority-Kurdish Afrin Canton on October 12 following
earlier reconnaissance missions. Russia likely perceives an opportunity to
exploit widening diplomatic fissures between the U.S. and Turkey. Russia could
thus attempt to use the ‘de-escalation zone’ to compel Turkey into deeper –
albeit temporary – cooperation with Russia in Northwestern Syria at the expense
of the United States.
The following graphic depicts ISW’s assessment of Russian
airstrike locations based on reports from local Syrian activist networks,
statements by Russian and Western officials, and documentation of Russian airstrikes
through social media. This map represents locations targeted by Russia’s air
campaign, rather than the number of individual strikes or sorties. The graphic
likely under-represents the extent of the locations targeted in Eastern Syria,
owing to a relative lack of activist reporting from that region.
High-Confidence Reporting. ISW places high
confidence in reports corroborated by documentation from opposition factions
and activist networks on the ground in Syria deemed to be credible that
demonstrate a number of key indicators of Russian airstrikes.
Low-Confidence Reporting. ISW places low
confidence in reports corroborated only by multiple secondary sources,
including from local Syrian activist networks deemed credible or Syrian
state-run media.
[Blog Editor: The following posted on email but not
webpage]
The preceding graphic depicts ISW's assessment of Russian
airstrike locations based on reports from local Syrian activist networks,
statements by Russian and Western officials, and documentation of Russian
airstrikes through social media. This map represents locations targeted by
Russia's air campaign, rather than the number of individual strikes or sorties.
The graphic likely under-represents the extent of the locations targeted in
Eastern Syria, owing to a relative lack of activist reporting from that region.
Visit our websites -- www.understandingwar.org and http://iswresearch.blogspot.com -- and follow us on
Twitter (@TheStudyofWar).
_______________
Russia, Iran & Turkey Axis
John R. Houk
© October 18, 2017
_________________
Russia Renews Targeting Civilians
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