What happens when the Dems fail to remove President Trump
with lies about Russia and Ukraine? You find an actual pandemic that has a far
less fatality rate than past flu epidemics handled by the Obama Administration
and create fear then blame President Trump. Blaming Trump who combated the
pandemic with effective policies that already dwarf the effectiveness Obama
Administration policies against flu deaths is ridiculous.
Grassfire
confronts Dem fear-mongering myths with actual facts.
JRH 3/12/20
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BLOG EDITOR (In Fascistbook
jail since 1/20/20): I’ve apparently been placed in restricted Facebook
Jail! The restriction was relegated after criticizing Democrats for supporting
abortion in one post and criticizing Virginia Dems for gun-grabbing legislation
and levying protester restrictions. Rather than capitulate to Facebook
censorship by abandoning the platform, I choose to post and share until the
Leftist censors ban me completely. Conservatives are a huge portion of
Facebook. If more or all Conservatives are banned, it will affect
the Facebook advertising revenue paradigm. SO FIGHT CENSORSHIP BY SHARE – SHARE
– SHARE!!! Facebook notified me in pop-up on 1/20/20: “You're
temporarily restricted from joining and posting to groups that you do not
manage until April 18 at 7:04 PM.”
**************************
Coronavirus – Fight the Fear
We explode THREE CORONAVIRUS MYTHS to help you fight
the fear...
Data as of 3/10/20
America and the world are rushing headlong into a global
recession sparked, not by a deadly virus but, by FEAR of a deadly virus.
Since the ramifications for our nation -- and for you and me
individually -- are quite enormous, I want to offer you some context and
resources that can help you sort out the TRUTH of what's really happening.
+ + Biggest FEAR PLAY I've ever seen
First off, this is without a doubt the most widespread FEAR
PLAY I've ever seen. Visit Drudge Report today and you'll discover TWENTY-SIX
links at the top of the page about the Chinese Coronavirus -- all DOOM AND
GLOOM.
There is no context. No counterpoint. And it's the same just
about everywhere.
As I'm writing this, the U.S. death toll stands at 30.
Global deaths have exceeded 4,000. Yes, it's a new, deadly virus, but the
actions being taken by world leaders to SHUT DOWN entire countries (Italy is
now shut down) is a dangerous overreaction. Those decisions will impact your family
far more than the virus -- and could decide this fall's presidential election!
If we allow FEAR to rule the
day, we could find ourselves in a global recession that negatively affects our
families in profound ways and even directly impacts our November elections.
So why am I more concerned with the FEAR than the VIRUS?
+ + Busting the Myths...
Because I've been doing some digging...
And it's looking more and more like the Chinese Coronavirus
will ultimately end up very similar to the 2009-10 Swine Flu Pandemic than the
Apocalypse that Drudge and everyone else is pushing.
Before I go on, I want to say that we must take the Chinese
Coronavirus seriously. There is a good possibility that hundreds of thousands
of people (or more) may die as a result of this virus. And if that happens, it
will have a similar impact as the 2009 Swine Flu which infected 60 million
Americans and killed more than a HALF MILLION people worldwide.
Yet, I don't recall ANY GLOBAL SWINE FLU PANIC in 2009 --
certainly nothing even close to the "SHUT DOWN" fears we're
experiencing now.
Interestingly, Swine Flu at its outset was thought to
possibly have a 4% mortality rate -- about the same as the current chatter
surrounding the Chinese Coronavirus. In retrospect, the mortality rate for the
Swine Flu Pandemic turned out to be far below 1% (perhaps .1%). Still, a HALF
MILLION people died. Yet the stock market didn't go through historic
convulsions because of the flu. Countries didn't shut down. Life went on.
So here are three CHINESE CORONAVIRUS MYTHS I
want to bust with some fact-based realities that can keep us from cultural and
economic shutdown.
§
Myth #1 -- Chinese
Coronavirus's mortality rate is OFF THE CHARTS
§
Myth #2 -- Chinese
Coronavirus is SUPER VIRAL, way worse than the flu
§
Myth #3 -- Chinese Coronavirus
is an INDISCRIMINATE KILLER
To bust these myths, here are four realities about the
Chinese Coronavirus...
+ + REALITY #1 -- The mortality rate is likely FAR LOWER
than currently feared
Currently, the FEAR PUSHERS are reporting that the mortality
rate from this Coronavirus is 3.4%. That's not true. The World Health
Organization says the "crude mortality
ratio" (total deaths divided by total infected) is "between 3 and 4
percent." But a mortality ratio and a mortality rate are
two different things. First off, the early predictions of mortality rates for
these outbreaks are almost always high and misleading because we simply do not
have enough data. (See more on this here.) Once there is additional
data, the mortality ratio generally drops, and thus, the mortality
rate predictions drop as well.
So what's the best guess for the mortality rate for the
Chinese Coronavirus? Here's what Adm. Brett Giroir at the Department of
Health and Human Services said
last week: "The best estimates now of the overall mortality rate
for COVID-19 is somewhere between 0.1 percent and 1 percent.
That’s lower than you’ve heard probably in many reports."
If Giroir is correct, then we can stop all the panic. Yes,
LOTS OF PEOPLE WILL DIE -- just like the Swine Flu Pandemic of a decade ago.
Yes, we should take precautions. But this will not be a culture-shifting event.
And it shouldn't be treated as such.
But is Giroir correct?
Most likely, yes. The strongest data set we currently have
to project the Chinese Coronavirus mortality rate is coming from South Korea,
where extensive testing has been done. Here's the latest data out of South
Korea:
§
189,000 people tested
§
7,513 tested positive for
COVID-19
§
52 deaths
Do the math. The current "crude mortality ratio"
in South Korea is .69% (52 / 7,513) -- about 80% lower than the 3.4% discussed
commonly. This is amazingly consistent with the mortality rate in China outside of Wuhan --
.7%. Even the small case study of the Diamond Princess cruise ship that was
stranded at the onset of the outbreak also suggests a lower mortality rate --
705 infected, 6 deaths (.9%). So far, Germany has reported an even lower rate
-- 1,139 cases and just two deaths (.017%). (You can see the latest
numbers for every country reporting here.)
The real data right now indicates a high probability of a
CEILING of .7% mortality rate, at least in developed countries. I say CEILING
because with awareness will come more testing and early diagnosis and better
treatments and fewer deaths. Thus, I believe it is quite reasonable to
project, based on what we now know, that the actual mortality rate for those
who contract the Chinese Coronavirus will be less than .7%. (For
comparison, the odds of a car crash being the cause of
your death is roughly 1%, and since only a smallish percentage of us will
contract the Chinese Coronavirus, cars are still way more likely to kill you
than this coronavirus.) Yes, America's mortality numbers from this
coronavirus look bad right now, but that's primarily because of the small
sample size and that we haven't really begun any widespread testing.
I want to be clear. Even a
.7% mortality rate could result in a global pandemic that could kill hundreds
of thousands (remember, Swine Flu killed more than a half million). It's a
major deal that needs to be taken very seriously. But it does not justify
GLOBAL PANIC, shutting down entire nations, disrupting our everyday lives,
causing massive job losses, forcing America and the world into global
recession, and possibly swaying the outcome of our presidential election!
+ + Reality #2 -- Chinese Coronavirus may be LESS VIRAL
than seasonal flu
After all the fear mongering and end-of-world posts
everywhere, I was surprised to discover in the WHO literature that influenza
likely "spreads faster" than Chinese Coronavirus. Also, the Chinese
Coronavirus is LESS LIKELY than influenza to be transmitted in the first days
of symptoms or before symptoms present. Here's how the WHO explains it:
Q. How are COVID-19 and influenza
viruses different?
A. The speed of transmission is an
important point of difference between the two viruses. Influenza has a shorter
median incubation period (the time from infection to appearance of symptoms)
and a shorter serial interval (the time between successive cases) than COVID-19
virus. The serial interval for COVID-19 virus is estimated to be 5-6 days,
while for influenza virus, the serial interval is 3 days. This means that
influenza can spread faster than COVID19. Further, transmission in the first
3-5 days of illness, or potentially pre-symptomatic transmission – transmission
of the virus before the appearance of symptoms – is a major driver of
transmission for influenza. In contrast, while we are learning that there are
people who can shed COVID-19 virus 24-48 hours prior to symptom onset, at
present, this does not appear to be a major driver of transmission.
So the Chinese Coronavirus is possibly LESS VIRAL than
the seasonal flu. I'm not hearing that much from the FEAR MONGERS. One
would think we're all doomed to get the virus, and then death is a crapshoot.
Not only are we not all doomed to get the virus, if you do contract COVID-19
you might not get get sick enough to know it or even go to the doctor, and
you'll very likely survive just fine.
Which leads us to our third important Chinese Coronavirus
realty...
+ + Reality #3 -- Chinese Coronavirus targets the elderly
and especially those with existing health conditions
Unlike the seasonal flu or the Swine Flu Pandemic which
impacted both young and old and everyone in between, we now know that the
Chinese Coronavirus very much targets people over the age of 70 and especially
the elderly with respiratory and other pre-existing ailments.
At the epicenter of the outbreak in Wuhan, China, this
Coronavirus resulted in a very ominous
mortality rate of nearly 15% for those 80 and over and perhaps 10% for those in
their 70s. But skew the age down to people in their 50s and the morality rate
plummeted to 1.3%. And the younger you are, the more resistant you are to the
virus: .4% mortality rate for those in 40s, and just .2% for ages 10 to 39.
From what I can see there are NO REPORTED DEATHS in China of those under 10,
which is quite a stunning fact of this virus that is terribly under-reported by
the FEAR MEDIA.
Also, the Chinese Coronavirus acts like other respiratory
illnesses in that it is exacerbated by pre-existing conditions. Based on
China's data, here are the mortality rates for those who had
the Chinese Coronavirus:
§
and cardiovascular
disease: 10.5%
§
and diabetes: 7.3%
§
and high blood
pressure: 6.0%
§
and cancer:
5.6%
§
and no other
reported health conditions: .9%!
That last line is very telling. It may prove out that
existing health conditions are for more of a concern with this virus than age.
And here's another important point: Unlike the seasonal flu and the Swine Flu,
not only are children far less susceptible to the Chinese Coronavirus, children
are not the main transmitters. Children who do get sick seem to get the Chinese
Coronavirus from adults, not other children. So we don't need to shut down the
schools.
All this is very significant. Instead of a WIDE-SCALE
SHUTDOWN OF SOCIETY that is now being forced upon us, perhaps we can target our
response to safeguarding those over, say, 70, or those with existing health
conditions. Let's do aggressive testing for those over 70 or those with health
conditions. Let's learn from countries like Germany, whose excellent elderly
care may explain the country's current low
mortality ratio of just .017%.
So we may have caught a break. Yes, seniors are in danger.
But our response to the outbreak can be very targeted, and since children are
less susceptible both to the disease and as transmitters, it may not prove to
be as widespread as, for example, the Swine Flu (which infected 60 million
Americans!).
The targeted nature of the
virus toward the elderly is another good reason NOT to panic and NOT to disrupt
our normal lives and NOT to throw our nation into lockdown and NOT to create an
economic meltdown and NOT to allow fear to determine our future!
All this leads me to a fourth reality, and some actions we
can take...
+ + Reality #4 -- We have already OVERREACTED and now our
overreaction is the main danger!
It's clear that we have already overreacted. Again, as of
this writing, 30 people in the U.S. have died, and our national reaction has
already sent the stock market into historic convulsions. We have started down
the slippery slope to cultural and economic shutdown. Events are being
cancelled. Businesses are putting a moratorium on travel. People are
hoarding... toilet paper! You can feel it coming. Shutdown.
As I've shown, the REALITY data does not warrant this
over-reaction, nor does our current situation. Consider this: If we're already
in the beginning stages of shutdown with just a handful of deaths, WHERE DO WE
GO FROM HERE when the U.S. death toll reaches 100, and then 1,000? Because of
our over-reaction now, we will almost be forced into societal shutdown as the
death toll rises. And it will rise. Why? Because we're dealing with a virus
that likely CANNOT BE CONTROLLED and could very likely kill thousands if not tens
of thousands or more Americans. This is the reality with pandemics. Thankfully,
it now appears the Chinese Coronavirus is NOT the Armageddon virus the FEAR
MEDIA would have us believe it is.
And the fear is dangerous. Here's what Dr. Abu Sharkaway --
an infectious disease expert in Toronto -- posted on Facebook last week:
"I am not scared of
Covid-19. What I am scared about is the loss of reason and wave of fear that
has induced the masses of society into a spellbinding spiral of panic,
stockpiling obscene quantities of anything that could fill a bomb shelter
adequately in a post-apocalyptic world."
+ + How to fight back against the fear...
So what do we do? How do we push back against the FEAR
NARRATIVE?
First, we CONTINUE TO GATHER INFORMATION independent of the
FEAR-BASED MEDIA SYSTEM. Grassfire is going to do our part.
Second, we take prudent steps to protect ourselves and our
families and minimize the risks, especially for the elderly.
Third, we REJECT THE FEAR NARRATIVE and insist on continuing
to live our lives as normally as possible. We sound off in every arena possible
-- in your home, on talk radio, in your community. We tell our elected
representatives that we are knowledgeable, but we are not afraid and we DO NOT
WANT GOVERNMENT-MANDATED OR GOVERNMENT-ENCOURAGED economic and societal
shutdown.
+ + The ultimate danger we face
Even beyond economic disruption and societal shutdown and
the possible ramifications on a U.S. presidential election, our FEAR RESPONSE
to this virus poses an even greater danger. It's possible that long after this
Chinese Coronavirus event has come and gone, our society will have shifted
further into the realm of fear and isolation.
We'll stop shaking hands and
instead adopt the "elbow bump" as part of our new norm of
"social distancing" (a phrase just added to the lexicon for most of us)...
We'll have even more justification for interacting virtually instead of in
person.... Churches will only serve communion in those individual
hermetically sealed communion packets... And we'll cement in our psyche a
presupposition of social fear and isolation.
Dr. Sharkaway said it this way:
"[M]ostly, I'm scared about
what message we are telling our kids when faced with a threat. Instead of
reason, rationality, openmindedness and altruism, we are telling them to panic,
be fearful, suspicious, reactionary and self-interested."
So let's get educated. Let's have open discussions in our
circles of influence. Let's take prudent steps to protect our families. And
let's refuse to give into the fear.
Steve Elliott, Grassfire
+++++++++++++++++++++
BLOG EDITOR (In Fascistbook
jail since 1/20/20): I’ve apparently been placed in restricted Facebook
Jail! The restriction was relegated after criticizing Democrats for supporting
abortion in one post and criticizing Virginia Dems for gun-grabbing legislation
and levying protester restrictions. Rather than capitulate to Facebook
censorship by abandoning the platform, I choose to post and share until the
Leftist censors ban me completely. Conservatives are a huge portion of
Facebook. If more or all Conservatives are banned, it will affect
the Facebook advertising revenue paradigm. SO FIGHT CENSORSHIP BY SHARE – SHARE
– SHARE!!! Facebook notified me in pop-up on 1/20/20: “You're
temporarily restricted from joining and posting to groups that you do not
manage until April 18 at 7:04 PM.”
_________________________
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