According to this 2/24/22 report from the Institute for the Study of War
(ISW) Ukraine appears to be Russian toast without physical help. Since no one
really knows who is pulling the puppet strings (a lot of guesses) for
fraudulently elected Dementia Joe, I am unsure if America will do anything
other than sound bellicose in support of Ukraine integrity.
If there is a button-pushing puppeteer willing to confront
Putin, I suspect Russian ally CCP controlled China will attack Taiwan. If the
button-pushing puppeteer has the guts to militarily challenge an invasion of
Taiwan, the world as we know is over as nuke ballistic missiles begin flying.
BUT my guess is Dem-Marxists running an election coup-seized
government and look the other way as they focus on securing tyranny in the once
home of the Free and Brave.
Time will tell … probably sooner than later.
Ethnic Divisions of
Ukraine Map from Youtube
video entitled, “2022
- R.I.P. Ukraine (1991-2022) - How Might Russia Go About Partitioning Ukraine?
Pre-War Forecast” posted 2/12/22
JRH 2/25/22
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RUSSIA-UKRAINE WARNING UPDATE: INITIAL RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE
CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT
By Mason Clark, George Barros, and Kateryna Stepanenko
February 24, 3:00 pm EST
Institute
for the Study of War
Russian President Vladimir Putin began a large-scale
invasion of Ukraine on February 24 likely aimed at full regime change and the
occupation of Ukraine. His claimed objective to “demilitarize” and
“de-nazify” Ukraine is a transparent cover for an unprovoked war of aggression
to occupy a neighboring state. Putin and Kremlin media continue to deny that
the Russian invasion is a war, instead describing it as a special military
operation.[1] Putin’s messaging is likely aimed at a
domestic Russian audience, which the Kremlin has not fully prepared for the
costs of a war against Ukraine. Russian officials and state media have been
denying and mocking Western warnings of the impending Russian invasion for
months and as recently as February 23.[2] Russian
forces remain much larger and more capable than Ukraine’s conventional
military. Russia will likely defeat Ukrainian regular military forces and
secure their territorial objectives at some point in the coming days or weeks
if Putin is determined to do so and willing to pay the cost in blood and
treasure.
Key Takeaways
§
Ukrainian forces are successfully slowing
Russian offensives on all axes of advance other than a Russian breakout from
the Crimean Peninsula. Russian failure to ground the Ukrainian air force or
cripple Ukrainian command and control is likely enabling these initial
Ukrainian successes.
§
Ukrainian forces are contesting the Hostomel
military airport, 20 km northwest of Kyiv, as of 9:30 pm local time.[3] Russian
VDV (Airborne) troops landed at Hostomel and have also failed to capture the
Boryspil airport southeast of Kyiv. Ukraine’s contestation of the airport
deprives Russian forces of any location to airlift forces onto Kyiv’s western
flank overnight.
§
Russian forces are rapidly advancing north from
Crimea, securing Kherson city. Their deepest penetration to date is about 60
kilometers.
§
Russian forces are advancing on Kyiv from
Belarus on both sides of the Dnipro River. Russian forces secured the Chernobyl
Exclusion Zone (on the west bank) at 7:30 pm local time, but Ukrainian forces
have slowed Russian advances east of the Dnipro at Chernihiv.
§
Russian forces likely seek to cut off Ukrainian
troops on the line of contact in Donbas using an envelopment behind the
Ukrainian front lines through Luhansk Oblast. Russian frontal assaults have
taken little territory in Donetsk and Luhansk at this time.
Russian military operations began with a short and incomplete
air campaign on February 24 around 4:00 am local time targeting Ukrainian air
defenses, supply depots, and airfields across unoccupied Ukraine. However,
portions of the Ukrainian Air Force remain operational and Ukrainian command
and control appears intact.
§
US defense officials estimate initial strikes
comprised over 100 missiles including a mix of short and medium-range ballistic
missiles, cruise missiles, and sea-launched missiles.[4] An
estimated 75 Russian bombers participated in the attack.[5]
§
Russia did not successfully ground the Ukrainian
air force or cripple the Ukrainian armed forces, enabling several Ukrainian
successes on February 24. ISW incorrectly forecasted that any Russian offensive
would begin with a concentrated air and missile campaign to cripple Ukrainian
command and control and infrastructure.
§
The Russian failure to comprehensively strike
key Ukrainian assets is a surprising break from expected Russian operations and
has likely enabled stiffer Ukrainian defense. The Ukrainian military has shot
down seven Russian aircraft and seven helicopters as of 8:00 pm local time,
February 24.[6]
§
Russia has not demonstrated its full air and
missile capabilities and will likely conduct further waves of strikes in the
coming days aimed at degrading Ukraine’s command and control and ability to
redeploy forces.
Ukrainian forces are currently contesting the Hostomel
military airport, 20 km northwest of Kyiv, against Russian VDV (airborne)
troops likely from the 31st Guards Air Assault Brigade as of 9:30 pm local time
after several unsuccessful counterattacks earlier in the day.[7] Russian
airborne forces were additionally unable to secure the Boryspil airport (Kyiv’s
primary international airport), southeast of Kyiv.[8] Ukraine’s
contestation of the airport prevents Russia from airlifting reinforcements to
isolate Kyiv from western Ukraine, as feared earlier in the day.
Russian ground forces are advancing on four primary axes,
discussed in turn below:
1. Belarus/Kyiv;
2. Kharkiv;
3. Donbas; and
4. Crimea-Kherson.
1) Belarus/Kyiv axis: Russian forces in Belarus are
advancing on Kyiv along both sides of the Dnipro River, likely seeking to
isolate Kyiv. Russian forces have made greater progress west of the Dnipro,
successfully securing the Chernobyl exclusion zone.
§
Ukrainian forces reported halting Russia’s
offensive by elements of the 36th Combined Arms Army into Kyiv Oblast from
Belarus at Chernihiv, roughly 120 km northeast of Kyiv, including capturing an
entire reconnaissance platoon of the Russian 74th Motor Rifle Brigade.[9]
§
Russian forces secured the Chernobyl exclusion
zone as of 7:30 pm local time.[10] Russian forces likely
intend to cut Kyiv off from western Ukraine through a drive down the western
bank of the Dnipro River. The failure of Russian airborne forces to secure the
Hostomel airport will impede this envelopment.
§
No Belarusian forces are confirmed to be
participating in operations in Ukraine as of this time. Belarusian President
Lukashenko claimed Belarusian forces will not participate in operations in
Ukraine and instead cover the “western operational direction” against Poland
and Lithuania.[11]
2) Kharkiv axis: Russian forces, including confirmed
elements of the 1st Guards Tank Army, are conducting a frontal assault on
Kharkiv from northeastern Ukraine.[12] Ukrainian forces are temporarily
halting Russian advances but Russian forces will likely enter Kharkiv before
the end of the day.
§
Heavy fighting is currently ongoing on key roads
leading from Russia to Kharkiv. Ukrainian forces are inflicting casualties on
Russian tanks using US-provided Javelin antitank systems.[13] Elements
of the 1st Guards Tank Army entered the outskirts of Kharkiv at 2:00 pm local
time.[14] ISW cannot confirm at this time the extent of
Russian advances into Kharkiv.
§
Russian forces have additionally crossed the
northeastern Ukrainian border at several points. Ukrainian forces appear to be
conducting fighting withdrawals. Ukrainian forces halted Russian forces
northwest of Kharkiv in Sumy Oblast.[15]
3) Donbas axis: Russian forces, likely elements of the
8th Combined Arms Army, are conducting an envelopment through Luhansk Oblast
rather than a frontal assault from the Russian-occupied Donbas. Russian forces
likely seek to cut off Ukrainian forces on the line of contact and/or drive
them out of their prepared defensive positions, forcing them to fight in the
open.
§
Russian forces made achieved limited advances in
northern Luhansk Oblast.
§
Russian forces have likely not secured a
breakthrough along the line of contact in Donbas but claim to have done so. The
Russian Ministry of Defense claimed at 7:00 pm local time that Russian proxy
troops with Russian air and artillery support broke through the line of contact
in unspecified locations to a depth of 6-8 km.[16] The UK
Ministry of Defense reported at 8:30 pm EET (Ukraine local time) that Russian
forces have not achieved a breakthrough.[17] Ukrainian
forces last reported they were holding firm along the entire line of contact at
5:00 pm local time.[18] ISW cannot confirm Russian MoD
claims that proxy forces—rather than Russia’s 8th Combined Arms Army—are
conducting frontal assaults in Donbas, though a decision not to deploy Russian
frontline troops into occupied Donbas in advance of the invasion may explain
limited Russian success. Russian forces have reportedly been unable to secure
terrain in a frontal assault from Donetsk toward Mariupol as of 7:00 pm local
time.[19]
4) Russian forces are making their greatest territorial
gains advancing north from Crimea. Russian forces have reportedly penetrated to
a depth of at least 60 km and captured Kherson city, securing access to the
Crimean Canal.[20] President Zelensky identified the attack from Crimea as
the “most problematic situation.”[21]
§
Elements of the 7th VDV (airborne) Division and
unknown elements of the 58th Combined Arms Army are conducting the breakout
operation. Russian forces are advancing both east (toward Melitopol) and west
(toward Odesa).[22]
§
ISW cannot confirm reports of any Russian
amphibious landings in Odesa or Mariupol. Initial reports of such landings
appear to be incorrect. Russia may wait until forces from Crimea have secured
crossings over the Dnipro River before attempting to seize Odesa by air and
sea.
Immediate items to watch
§
Russian Naval Infantry have not yet conducted
amphibious landings but retain the capability to do so against the Odesa or the
Azov Sea coasts or both.
§
Russian Airborne forces may successfully secure
the Hostomel military airport overnight, enabling Russia to airlift additional
forces onto Kyiv’s western flank.
§
Russia will likely conduct additional rounds of
air and missile strikes in the coming 24 hours. Russian operations will likely
steadily wear down Ukrainian air capabilities and eventually take the Ukrainian
air force out of the fight.
§
Russian forces have not yet attempted the
decapitation strike several analysts and outlets have forecasted and may attempt
to do so in the near future.
§
It remains unclear how much of its total
strength the Russian military has committed at this time.
§
Russia has sufficient conventional military
power to reinforce each of its current axes of advance and overpower the
conventional Ukrainian forces defending them.
NOTES:
[1] http://kremlin dot
ru/events/president/news/67843.
[2] https://tass dot
ru/politika/13822327.
[3] https://twitter.com/Global_Mil_Info/status/1496929026790899715?s=20&t=lD-NG5BnNN4J3I3DRJr4qg
[4] https://twitter.com/beverstine/status/1496869155420934153?s=20&t=IIXt0iyFgu5kUQz2eL_Vog
[5] https://twitter.com/beverstine/status/1496869156720988168?s=20&t=IIXt0iyFgu5kUQz2eL_Vog
[6] https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1496909242946965505?s=20&t=eewCamzBVVJ2fhTWMhhqVQ
[7] https://twitter.com/Global_Mil_Info/status/1496929026790899715?s=20&t=lD-NG5BnNN4J3I3DRJr4qg
[8] https://www.zsu.gov dot
ua/new_page/6217ae6b4909af0013065b7e; https://twitter.com/ArmedForcesUkr/status/1496871477026508804; https://twitter.com/myroslavapetsa/status/1496903032327577601; https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1496850009261813761.
[9] https://www.facebook.com/CinCAFU/posts/254902746805218; https://www.zsu.gov dot
ua/new_page/6217ae6b4909af0013065b7e; https://twitter.com/Danspiun/status/1496788882121240580.
[10] https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1496900307288272899?s=20&t=eewCamzBVVJ2fhTWMhhqVQ;
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1496901424449564680?s=20&t=L7Q2SGkmKmEE7ZJoX8huRA
[11] https://president.gov dot
by/ru/events/operativnoe-soveshchanie-s-voennymi; https://president.gov dot
by/ru/events/telefonnyy-razgovor-s-prezidentom-rossii-vladimirom-putinym-1645679905.
[12] https://twitter.com/Danspiun/status/1496799918685519872;
https://twitter.com/konrad_muzyka/status/1496808152527998978;
https://www.facebook.com/CinCAFU/posts/254659590162867;
https://twitter.com/CITeam_ru/status/1496808466371031042.
[13] https://www.zsu.gov dot
ua/new_page/62179d0a4909af001304b32b
[14] https://twitter.com/Danspiun/status/1496799918685519872?s=20&t=WCoPkWWUFgGI56RglmAmyg;
https://www.facebook.com/CinCAFU/posts/254601806835312.
[15] https://www.zsu.gov dot
ua/new_page/6217ae6b4909af0013065b7e; https://www.zsu.gov dot
ua/new_page/6217855f4909af00130263cb.
[16] https://tvzvezda dot
ru/news/20222242010-sqIXk.html.
[17] https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1496916804777787395?s=20&t=eewCamzBVVJ2fhTWMhhqVQ
[18] https://www.zsu.gov dot
ua/new_page/6217ae6b4909af0013065b7e.
[19] https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1496887039014359047?s=20&t=IIXt0iyFgu5kUQz2eL_Vog
[20] https://tvzvezda dot
ru/news/20222242010-sqIXk.html; https://twitter.com/konrad_muzyka/status/1496798777251926017.
[21] https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1496884512244080640?s=20&t=IIXt0iyFgu5kUQz2eL_Vog
[22] https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1496733967323701254; https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1496672802786746369.
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