Justin Smith quite correctly alerts
readers that nuclear peace in our time with North Korea is unlikely without
trustworthy verification of any signed agreement. I concur, and you should too.
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The World Holds Its Breath
Kim's Word Means Nothing
By Justin O. Smith
Sent 5/5/2018 11:00 PM
North Korea and Kim Jong Un are far from
"honorable", and President Trump's administration and everybody else
must not lose their minds in a premature adulation and singing Trump's praises,
in anticipation of a Nobel Peace Prize, before they taste the proof in the
pudding. Yes, it is true that President Trump's tough talk and his tight
economic sanctions on North Korea have captured Kim's attention and seemingly
renewed his interest in playing nice in the realm of international affairs and
abandoning his nuclear weapons program; but, further
success is highly unlikely as the historical record shows, despite
the short memories of the American people and their hopes that this president
and the U.S. will not "get
played" once more.
Kim Jong Un is far from an ordinary dictator. He
has murdered his own senior military officers for the slightest of
perceived insults, he executed his uncle and he had his brother assassinated.
And just a few short months ago, he was threatening U.S. cities and territories
with nuclear annihilation.
In a surreal moment, America witnessed North
Korea's evil Little Dictator and South Korean President Moon Jae In shake hands
on April 27th in Panmunjom,
and, they later signed the 'Panmunjom Agreement' this day,
that stated
in part, "there will be no more war on the Korean Peninsula and
thus a new era of peace has begun."
Who could have imagined six months ago, that the world would
see the leaders of North and South Korea embrace or hear South Korean President
Moon Jae In recommend
President Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize?
President Trump does deserve credit for taking North Korea
to task for its evil acts and malfeasance, such as the horrific torture that
resulted in Otto Warmbier's death --- a slow murder that culminated weeks after
the torture hollowed out the mind of this young man, whose only
"crime" was seeking a souvenir of his visit. He also ordered the U.S
Treasury Department to clamp down on North Korea through economic sanctions,
and he motivated the United Nations Security Council to do the same, in
response to an assortment of aggressive North Korean missile tests.
However, President Trump's negotiators, the American people
and the international coalition overseeing this matter of North
Korean denuclearization should not fool itself with high
expectations and see successes where none exist, until they are in fact verified.
The
world has been here with North Korea on numerous other occasions.
In May
of 1972, a similar agreement was reached between
the Korean Bureau CIA director, Lee Hu Rak, and Kim Family Regime
cadre members in Pyongyang, but nothing came from it. In 1989,
Pyongyang held out the hope of a nuclear free Korean Peninsula, and
afterwards, it began requiring conditions from the George H.W. Bush
administration and won one concession after another, sending the message that
America could be played.
There was also the Joint
Declaration of the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula in 1992,
which was obviously
discarded by North Korea. North Korea ultimately refused to sign a
"safeguards" agreement, and it perpetrated mass deception, as it
designated its nuclear plants as something they were not.
The Clinton
administration essentially abandoned all efforts towards inspections.
Under Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, the United States gave away the
farm, appeasing North Korea [PDF
pages 15,16 & 20] through shipments of food and oil,
essentially speaking softly and carrying a big carrot.
Trump's team must deal with the facts that North Korea's
production of fissile material is continuing at a furious pace, and according
to the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency, North Korea is producing
enough material for twelve nuclear weapons a year, also detailed by
Adam Mount and Ankit Panda on April
21st in The Atlantic. Also, the U.S. must note that in 2012, North
Korea simply reclassified its nuclear missile tests as space launches to
circumvent its 2012 agreement. Even now, there are indications that North Korea
is continuing work on its most advanced ICBM, the Hwasong-15.
Although Kim did state that nuclear missile tests would be
suspended for the foreseeable future, Western media missed the core of Kim's
message. Kim's moratorium is, in his mind, the next logical step to a fully
operational nuclear weapons program, not a concession to the United States
before any comprehensive negotiations over his nuclear program. Not once has
Kim uttered the word "denuclearization".
Even President Bill Clinton's Secretary of Defense, William
Perry was wary of any North Korean promises, telling
the New York Times: "I'd rather [face the risk] of war than face
the risk of even greater catastrophe two or three years from now.
Just as with past regimes, Kim's word and signature on paper
mean absolutely nothing. He can break any moratorium or any agreement and
treaty, just as Pyongyang did in 2006, when it broke a 1999 moratorium on
missile launches. His pledge to a temporary moratorium on his nuclear program
and halting the proliferation of nuclear technology is not worth the paper it
is printed on without any verification, and Pres. Trump and his negotiators
cannot lose sight of this fact, going forward.
In short, America can look for North Korea to continue
trying to separate South Korea from its alliance with the U.S. and eventually
absorbing South Korea under Pyongyang's hardcore communist rule, while North
Korea will also continue to produce and test more nuclear missiles of multiple
range capabilities and warheads. And, despite vague statements from North
Korean state media and optimism from South Korea's leaders, there is little
hard evidence that North Korea is truly interested in abandoning its nuclear
weapons program for security, economic and political concessions.
The reunification of the two Korea's would hold even more
significant regional and global geopolitical ramifications, that would heavily
bear on U.S. vital national security interests, already on National Security
Advisor John Bolton's radar and contingency plans. The U.S. would most
certainly be asked to withdraw from Korea, which would coincide with
China and their current efforts aimed at expelling the U.S. from the Pacific
Theater, as such movements are also ongoing in both the Philippines and Okinawa.
The withdrawal of U.S. soldiers from Korea would be a strategic grand slam for
China, an emerging and expanding totalitarian nation that views America's
presence in the Pacific as an impediment to their long-term agenda to become a
regional, and then global, hegemon.
These are interesting and dangerous times, and the only good
solution to this entire mess is actual regime change in North Korea or the
reunification of a non-nuclear Korea under South Korea's auspices, guidance and
democratic republic form of government. Whatever President Trump and his team
of negotiators do, Trump must hold the line and protect America's vital
security interests first and foremost, wherever those interests are found, and
he must be prepared to walk away from any deal that does not have North Korea
giving up its nuclear weapons program in a matter of months. This is the time
for strong, clear, no-nonsense meaning in America's message to all parties
concerned, as the world holds its breath, watches and waits.
By Justin O. Smith
_____________________
Edited by John R. Houk
Text embraced by brackets and
all source links by J.O. Smith and the Editor.
© Justin O. Smith
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